Will PredictIt still be operating markets in March 2023?
Basic
62
Ṁ19k
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if PredictIt is still operating markets on March 1, 2023, otherwise NO.

This will resolve YES even if trading is limited based on country - e.g. if PredictIt is operating in non-US countries, that counts as YES.

See this other market for whether PredictIt is still operating in the US: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-predictit-still-be-operating-m-fcf469f35d06

Background: https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements

Notice to Traders - August 4th 2022

The staff of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken action on the No-Action letter (NAL) issued to Victoria University of Wellington and under which PredictIt has operated since 2014.

Here's what you need to know:   

  • The security of trader funds will not be affected by this action  

  • We intend to continue operating existing markets for trading through Feb. 15, 2023 unless they resolve sooner under their respective market rules

  • In light of this decision, we are halting the addition of new markets 

  • No determination has been made on how markets with end dates after Feb. 15 will be settled

  • PredictIt will continue to accept deposits and new signups 

  • PredictIt will continue to honor all withdrawal requests 

PredictIt maintains that all open markets are within the terms of the No-Action letter. We know our PredictIt community is incredibly strong and committed to this project.

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22

DMO has determined that Victoria University has not operated its market in compliance with the terms of the letter and as a result has withdrawn it. As stated in the withdrawal letter issued today, to the extent that Victoria University is operating any contract market in a manner consistent with each of the terms and conditions provided in CFTC Letter 14-130, all related and remaining listed contracts and positions comprising all associated open interest in such market should be closed out and/or liquidated no later than 11:59 p.m. (EDT)

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Here's a market on whether they will still be operating through the end of the year:

Apparently someone filed a Freedom of Information request about the CFTC's ruling. Will a FOIA request reveal that Kalshi was primarily responsible for CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt? https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-foia-request-reveal-that-kal

Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023? https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-predictit-create-any-new-marke
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