Resolves YES if PredictIt is still operating markets on March 1, 2023, otherwise NO.
This will resolve YES even if trading is limited based on country - e.g. if PredictIt is operating in non-US countries, that counts as YES.
See this other market for whether PredictIt is still operating in the US: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-predictit-still-be-operating-m-fcf469f35d06
Background: https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements
Notice to Traders - August 4th 2022
The staff of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken action on the No-Action letter (NAL) issued to Victoria University of Wellington and under which PredictIt has operated since 2014.
Here's what you need to know:
The security of trader funds will not be affected by this action
We intend to continue operating existing markets for trading through Feb. 15, 2023 unless they resolve sooner under their respective market rules
In light of this decision, we are halting the addition of new markets
No determination has been made on how markets with end dates after Feb. 15 will be settled
PredictIt will continue to accept deposits and new signups
PredictIt will continue to honor all withdrawal requests
PredictIt maintains that all open markets are within the terms of the No-Action letter. We know our PredictIt community is incredibly strong and committed to this project.
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22
DMO has determined that Victoria University has not operated its market in compliance with the terms of the letter and as a result has withdrawn it. As stated in the withdrawal letter issued today, to the extent that Victoria University is operating any contract market in a manner consistent with each of the terms and conditions provided in CFTC Letter 14-130, all related and remaining listed contracts and positions comprising all associated open interest in such market should be closed out and/or liquidated no later than 11:59 p.m. (EDT)
See also
So which one of you is Paul the PhD student?
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/is-this-the-last-election-of-politics-betting-site-predictit.html
Apparently someone filed a Freedom of Information request about the CFTC's ruling. Will a FOIA request reveal that Kalshi was primarily responsible for CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt? https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-foia-request-reveal-that-kal