Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
22
closes 2100
64%
chance

The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.

Similar markets for various amounts of warming:

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MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ45 of NO

/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th is 35% so this should be lower than 65%.

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshima

2 degrees from what baseline? 1880?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacis predicting YES at 76%
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting NO at 65%

@NoaNabeshima @IsaacKing degrees centigrade?

evergreenemily avatar
evergreenis predicting YES at 64%

@MartinRandall Yep, Isaac confirmed as much in the 15 degrees market.

StevenK avatar
Stevenbought Ṁ30 of NO

I added a market that doesn't condition on temperature (or you could think of it as conditioning on at least 1 degree, if you like) to round out the set.

.

StevenK avatar
Steven

This feels like answering "conditional on the world cup final ending in a penalty shootout, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?" I'd give it far under 100%, but I don't want to be misunderstood about the causality.

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