Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? | Manifold Markets

Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?

22

closes 2100

64%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.

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Martin Randallbought Ṁ45 of NO

/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th is 35% so this should be lower than 65%.

2 degrees from what baseline? 1880?

Isaacis predicting YES at 76%

@NoaNabeshima Sure

Martin Randallis predicting NO at 65%

@NoaNabeshima @IsaacKing degrees centigrade?

evergreenis predicting YES at 64%

@MartinRandall Yep, Isaac confirmed as much in the 15 degrees market.

Stevenbought Ṁ30 of NO

I added a market that doesn't condition on temperature (or you could think of it as conditioning on at least 1 degree, if you like) to round out the set.

.

This feels like answering "conditional on the world cup final ending in a penalty shootout, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?" I'd give it far under 100%, but I don't want to be misunderstood about the causality.

Alex Lien bought Ṁ3 NO at 64% 🎁

Alex Lien bought Ṁ25 NO at 64% 🎁

Alex Lien bought Ṁ27 NO at 64% 🎁

Martin Randall created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 63%

Martin Randall created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 62%

Martin Randall created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 61%

Martin Randall bought Ṁ30 NO from 65% to 64%

Tassilo Neubauer sold Ṁ44 YES from 70% to 65%

Martin Randall bought Ṁ60 NO from 83% to 70%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ11 NO at 83% (cancelled) 🤖

Rafael Ruiz de Lira bought Ṁ100 YES from 79% to 84%

Alex Petrenko bought Ṁ10 YES at 79%

Tarun Yadav bought Ṁ35 YES from 76% to 79%

evergreen filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 YES at 65%

David Mathers bought Ṁ10 YES from 75% to 76%

Martin Randall bought Ṁ45 NO from 85% to 75%

evergreen filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ25 YES at 75% (cancelled)

evergreen created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 90%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 YES at 85%

Adelani Ayobami sold Ṁ1 YES at 85%

Adelani Ayobami bought Ṁ1 YES at 85%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 YES at 85%

Mark Ramsbo bought Ṁ10 YES at 85%

Neon Nuke sold Ṁ9 YES at 85%

S G bought Ṁ10 YES at 85%

charlie bought Ṁ10 YES from 84% to 85%

charlie bought Ṁ10 YES from 83% to 84%

charlie bought Ṁ10 YES at 83%

charlie bought Ṁ10 YES from 82% to 83%

charlie bought Ṁ10 YES from 81% to 82%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 NO at 81% (cancelled)

charlie bought Ṁ10 YES from 81% to 82%

charlie bought Ṁ10 YES from 80% to 81%

charlie bought Ṁ10 YES from 79% to 80%

charlie bought Ṁ10 YES from 78% to 79%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 NO at 78% (cancelled)

Amnonian bought Ṁ50 YES from 72% to 80%

Gustavo Mafra bought Ṁ10 YES from 70% to 72%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 YES at 70% (cancelled)

Angola Maldives sold Ṁ81 YES from 81% to 68%

Steven bought Ṁ10 NO from 85% to 81%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ100 NO at 85% (cancelled)

Tassilo Neubauer bought Ṁ55 YES from 81% to 86%

m bought Ṁ10 YES from 80% to 81%

Steven bought Ṁ30 NO from 94% to 80%

Angola Maldives bought Ṁ100 YES from 90% to 94%

Neon Nuke bought Ṁ10 YES at 90%

Amnonian bought Ṁ10 YES from 89% to 90%

Joel bought Ṁ25 YES from 85% to 89%

Amit Amin bought Ṁ30 YES from 76% to 85%

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Will Earth be at least 2.2˚C warmer in 2100 than in 1880?67%

Will half the population die from biotechnology by 2100?40%

Will I be alive by 2100?23%

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