
Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
22
closes 2100
64%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.
Similar markets for various amounts of warming:
Sort by:
/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th is 35% so this should be lower than 65%.

I added a market that doesn't condition on temperature (or you could think of it as conditioning on at least 1 degree, if you like) to round out the set.
.

This feels like answering "conditional on the world cup final ending in a penalty shootout, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?" I'd give it far under 100%, but I don't want to be misunderstood about the causality.
Sort by:
15 YES payouts
Ṁ110
Ṁ107
Ṁ76
Ṁ62
Ṁ45
Ṁ36
Ṁ28
Ṁ12
Ṁ11
Ṁ11
5 NO payouts
Ṁ575
Ṁ332
Ṁ151












Related markets
Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?62%
Conditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?44%
Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?46%
Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?29%
Conditional on at least 15 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?21%
Will the number of excess deaths caused by global heating before 2100 be closer to 1 million or 1 billion?
Related markets
Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?62%
Conditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?44%
Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?46%
Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?29%
Conditional on at least 15 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?21%
Will the number of excess deaths caused by global heating before 2100 be closer to 1 million or 1 billion?