Will Global Warming Wipe Out Humanity By 2100?
Will Global Warming Wipe Out Humanity By 2100?
13
1kṀ8612035
9%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I just realized there are 100+ markets asking if AI will wipe out humanity, which is ridiculous since there is an ACTUAL PRESSING ISSUE burning the world alive
Also if I still remotley care about manifold by 2035 I'll extend it (and while I hope to live past 2100 the odds are against me so oh well)
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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