Will Global Warming Wipe Out Humanity By 2100?
12
257
Ṁ270
2035
11%
chance

I just realized there are 100+ markets asking if AI will wipe out humanity, which is ridiculous since there is an ACTUAL PRESSING ISSUE burning the world alive

Also if I still remotley care about manifold by 2035 I'll extend it (and while I hope to live past 2100 the odds are against me so oh well)

Get Ṁ600 play money

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5 Comments
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Yeah, the disparity is pretty absurd - I don't think either one is going to wipe out humanity, but all the focus on future AI which may or may not be hostile, while climate change is currently happening and will certainly get worse if we don't do something about it, is silly.

Also, I'd suggest putting an explicit timeframe on this, like "by 2035," "by 2050," "by 2100," etc. - otherwise people are just gonna buy YES since there's no mechanism for a NO resolution.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Voting yes just to manifest a quicker apocalyptic end.

The only way this could be resolved no is if something else wipes out humanity first…?

predicts NO

I actually already made one like this, as well as for other x-risks like nuclear war. They just haven't gotten as much attention as the AI ones.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Is there a time frame for this?

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