Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
28
71
550
2100
65%
chance

The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.

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Although Centigrade is customary it might be good to state the scale.

3 degrees of warming since what baseline date?

predicts YES

@GooglyEyes Whatever date people usually use when talking about these things

predicts NO

@IsaacKing So preindustrial temperatures?