Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?

closes 2045

36%

chance

ALL

Are we DOOMED or will Bill Gates save us?

If global warming is under 2°C at the end of 2045 this resolves YES, otherwies NO.

Climate

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Jon Simon

Does this mean that there will be an invented 2 degree change by 2045, or that a student amount of carbon will have been emitted that 2 degrees is "locked in"?

humblestumbleis predicting NO at 46%

@jonsimon I’m sorry I don’t understand

Joseph Noonansold Ṁ24 of YES

Is this compared to preindustrial levels?

humblestumbleis predicting NO at 46%

@JosephNoonan Yes

Yoav Tzfatibought Ṁ20 of YES

I think this isn't a good throshold, even pessimistic forecasts don't predict we'll pass 2 degrees by 2045 I think

humblestumble

@YoavTzfati Free mana then i suppose

ShadowyZephyr

@YoavTzfati But if new technologies come out that pushes it back below 2C, does it resolve YES or NO?

humblestumbleis predicting NO at 53%

@ShadowyZephyr It resolves YES

ShadowyZephyr

I would clarify with “at the end of 2045” then instead of using “by” which is more ambiguous

Joseph Budin bought Ṁ55 NO from 41% to 36%

Nico D sold Ṁ37 YES from 46% to 41%

Hans Truman bought Ṁ20 NO from 48% to 46%

Franklin Baldo bought Ṁ10 YES from 46% to 48%

Joseph Noonan sold Ṁ24 YES from 50% to 46%

Joseph Noonan bought Ṁ50 YES from 43% to 50%

Hans Truman bought Ṁ10 NO from 44% to 43%

brubsby bought Ṁ1 YES at 44%

Hans Truman bought Ṁ10 YES from 42% to 44%

Bruno Ursino sold Ṁ30 NO from 39% to 42%

Bruno Ursino bought Ṁ30 NO from 42% to 39%

Hans Truman bought Ṁ30 NO from 46% to 42%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 NO at 46% (cancelled) 🤖

Martin N.G. bought Ṁ50 YES from 39% to 48%

Em bought Ṁ25 NO from 42% to 39%

Adrian sold Ṁ8 NO from 41% to 42%

Pat Scott🩴 bought Ṁ20 NO from 44% to 41%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 44% (cancelled) 🤖

Hans Truman bought Ṁ25 NO from 46% to 42%

Hans Truman bought Ṁ10 NO from 47% to 46%

humblestumble bought Ṁ30 NO from 53% to 47%

Nico D created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 80%

Nico D created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 35%

Emil Abraham bought Ṁ50 YES from 43% to 53%

A bought Ṁ15 YES from 39% to 43%

kenakofer bought Ṁ5 YES from 38% to 39%

Nico D bought Ṁ30 YES from 31% to 38%

Nico D sold Ṁ96 NO from 23% to 31%

Nico D sold Ṁ36 NO from 21% to 23%

Nico D bought Ṁ100 NO from 28% to 21%

humblestumble bought Ṁ6 NO from 29% to 28%

Anna Chen bought Ṁ10 NO from 30% to 29%

Yoav Tzfati bought Ṁ20 YES from 24% to 30%

Nico D bought Ṁ10 NO from 25% to 24%

Hans Truman bought Ṁ20 NO from 28% to 25%

Canlum bought Ṁ10 NO from 29% to 28%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 NO at 29% (cancelled) 🤖

Joshua bought Ṁ10 YES from 26% to 30%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 YES at 26% (cancelled) 🤖

Pat Scott🩴 bought Ṁ30 NO from 30% to 25%

Adrian bought Ṁ10 NO from 32% to 30%

T bought Ṁ10 NO from 34% to 32%

Nico D bought Ṁ10 NO from 37% to 34%

Fion bought Ṁ10 NO from 41% to 37%

Nico D bought Ṁ10 NO from 48% to 41%

OperationIvy85 bought Ṁ10 NO from 59% to 48%

Alex... bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 59%

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