Conditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
28
179
510
2100
44%
chance

The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.

Similar markets for various amounts of warming:

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 of NO

The last glacial maximum, the peak of the last ice age was about 3°-8° C colder. 8°C hotter by 2100 would mean total ecological collapse.

bought Ṁ15 of NO

@Rwin Yeah. At that point agriculture is just impossible. Permian type beat.