By 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
By 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
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Please answer the following question with a probability that it is true: "By 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?"
ChatGPT: It is difficult to accurately predict the future and make estimates about the number of people who will be alive at a specific time in the future. There are many factors that can affect population size, including birth rates, death rates, and migration patterns. Some experts believe that the global population may begin to decline in the coming decades due to declining fertility rates and other factors. However, it is also possible that advances in medicine and technology could help to extend the average lifespan and increase the population in the future. Without more information, it is impossible to provide a reliable probability estimate for this question.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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