So let's count backwards from 2035

• FDA approval 1 year

• Phase 3 recruitment and running trials, 5 years

• Phase 2 trials 3 years

• Development of the procedure in humans 5 years

• Development of procedure in animals 4 years

• Fundraising and company formation 3 years

It's 2023 and following this insanely optimistic timeline takes 21 years, getting us to 2044 if there are no scientific FDA or socal delays. Also we would need to find people willing to invest 1b+ in this

This is going to zero

@StrayClimb Just have people call the FDA transphobic if it doesn't rush the process.

Some longer term versions:

/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-2045-will-it-be-possi

/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-2055-will-it-be-possi

Hey all - curious at the tagging here. I'm a straight biological male - but I'm interested in this from a more transhuman perspective. i.e. - no gender issues/wanting to change/overcome that - more am thinking that sure, in 100 or 1000 years, if we survive and achieve complete biological control of our bodies, this might just happen naturally or for convenience, w/out it being an identity or rights issue at all.

It's possible this might not require FDA approval - surgical procedures are under a much less strict regime than drugs. Is the idea that this would go through that path? And would only use already approved medications for off-label purposes (which is legal)?

another prediction I'd make is that the resulting person would be biologically 100% female. no differences left.

looking more likely. I imagine cis people will want their diseases fixed first or whatever, but this is going to be a surreal time for healthcare, if we don't die of ai powered war.

@L but if it's so surreal will anyone be having children "normally"? Am I going to take the "normal" risk of dying in labor when I can instead not do that?

@MartinRandall probably not, but if we can do the extra wacky things, we can do normal pregnancy

@L sure, but @IsaacKing said it had to be an "established procedure".

A world where this is possible also seems like a world with artificial wombs and vaginal fertilization and birth are a quaint relic of the before times.

@MartinRandall But surely some people would still want the option?

2035 is a bit soon to complete testing, but it seems likely to me that this will only require touching a bioelectric communication machine for a few minutes, then wait a month or two as your body reshapes itself. you may need genetic editing, which would push out timelines further. the problem is testing it well enough that someone can actually get pregnant after their body layout finishes self-diffusing to the new form. that may take another five to ten years depending on how many experiments are needed. thing is, bioelectric tech is super cheap to implement once the designs are understood, it's figuring out how to build it that's hard - contrast eg medical magnets (mri, tms, etc). because of that low marginal cost and high demand, I'm sure at least one country will allow pushing this research forward. the real question in my mind is whether it'll focus first on general healing rather than body form transition specifically.

Look y'all, I'm very interested in this, but the idea that it would happen without a C-section is crazy. In order for that to happen, you would need to either have surgery which very invasively modifies your pelvis, or start taking hormones much before you're 25. It's also not at all obvious to me that a neovagina would be able to expand that much. You're already expected to dilate in order to keep it the proper size in the first place, I can't imagine a baby's head will fit well

@LivInTheLookingGlass I guess this resolves based on a single person doing it, who maybe did start hormones in childhood. But I think your bet is solid.

@MartinRandall Can't just be a single person, needs to be an established procedure. But requiring hormones early on in life is fine, that'll still be good enough to resolve this to YES.

@IsaacKing well, thanks for the free money then 🙂

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