By the end of 2055, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally?
30
76
590
2056
36%
chance

The fertilization must occur via sex and the baby must be born via somewhat normal childbirth rather than a cesarean section. The process must be relativly safe and not highly experimental, and it must be cheap enough to be available to the middle class.

It does still count if it's only possible based on actions taken during childhood, such as hormones to change pelvis growth.

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How does this resolve for a surgically-implanted cybernetic womb? hard to describe what I mean here, but like a "more robot like" one vs one that was grown and is made mostly of cells.

predicts YES

@NicholasKross That counts.

predicts NO

I'm completely stunned by this market being at almost 80%. Could someone please sketch out a path for me of how on earth you expect a safe cheap procedure to replicate:

  1. Ovaries that produces eggs

  2. Zygote implantation

  3. A womb that can sustain a 9 month gestation

  4. A vaginal tract flexible enough to dilate to 10cm

These include entire organs that don't exist.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here, this market should be down below 10%...

@jonsimon A lot of questions on Manifold are basically "bets on a transhumanist future". If tech moved really fast and also humanity didn't go extinct (or regress super hard against trans people) by 2055, this would be plausible. (E.g. using not-yet-perfected-or-even-extant technologies like organ growing, cybernetic implants, etc.)

Theoretically, would a brain-swap (physically taking two consenting adults and swapping their brains, somehow) count? (If we assume it as "relatively safe", which is quite absurd by 2055)

bought Ṁ50 of NO

There are whole organ systems missing... this is so astronomically far from being feasible...

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