The fertilization must occur via sex and the baby must be born via somewhat normal childbirth rather than a cesarean section. The process must be relativly safe and not highly experimental, and it must be cheap enough to be available to the middle class.
It does still count if it's only possible based on actions taken during childhood, such as hormones to change pelvis growth.
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I'm completely stunned by this market being at almost 80%. Could someone please sketch out a path for me of how on earth you expect a safe cheap procedure to replicate:
Ovaries that produces eggs
Zygote implantation
A womb that can sustain a 9 month gestation
A vaginal tract flexible enough to dilate to 10cm
These include entire organs that don't exist.
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here, this market should be down below 10%...
@jonsimon A lot of questions on Manifold are basically "bets on a transhumanist future". If tech moved really fast and also humanity didn't go extinct (or regress super hard against trans people) by 2055, this would be plausible. (E.g. using not-yet-perfected-or-even-extant technologies like organ growing, cybernetic implants, etc.)