Before I am >40, I will be pregnant (presumably via uterine transplant)
➕
Plus
15
Ṁ1050
2038
11%
chance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transgender_pregnancy#Trans_women

I think this is currently unlikely, but in principle is very desirable

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
predicts YES

Why is this so low? According to that Wikipedia link, experimental uterine transplants have already occurred and babies born from them.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing I was putting some weight on Olivia deciding to have kids another way, and some weight on it being blocked for trans women.

@MartinRandall "Being blocked" meaning made illegal? Why would that happen?

@IsaacKing I took that as technological block, but is it really so surprising that some state might try to ban it? I would do my best not to live in such a place, but I would be completely unsurprised if e.g. Texas did that

predicts NO

Also, to my knowledge, all of these procedures were done to cis women. It's currently against guidelines to offer this to trans women

predicts YES

@LivInTheLookingGlass What justification would a state provide for such a ban? I can understand the concerns about irreversible changes made to minors, since per our societal norms they can't consent, but for adults, why would that be a concern?

Has any existing state tried to ban any type of gender-affirming care for adults?

predicts NO

I don't know why you are acting like their arguments are in good faith. These are the same people saying trans people want to rape children and put litterboxes in school. They don't need a justification.

In the midterms, for example, they were telling me to vote against Prop 3 (abortion rights) because it would give children access to puberty blockers. You know, those things that pause puberty and are completely reversible, the stuff we give to cis kids semi-frequently anyways in the case of precocious puberty

Also, were it to be challenged in court, probably they would get the rational basis test, which requires them to come up with any explanation at all. it doesn't even need to be true, necessarily. It certainly does not need to be consistent (as implemented by judges, at least)

predicts NO

@IsaacKing I was mainly thinking regulatory block. The regulators would claim that it can't be approved in trans women because there are no studies on the effects on mother and child. And then they would block such studies because the unborn child can't consent and pregnancy is dangerous and so forth. Easy catch 22, many such cases.

predicts YES

@LivInTheLookingGlass I'm pretty sure they think their arguments are justified.

We don't have to argue about this though, we have prediction markets! Here:

predicts YES

@MartinRandall Ah, that makes sense.

predicts YES

@LivInTheLookingGlass I'll note by the way that I think you might be engaging in the same sort of focusing-on-edge-cases that you're accusing them of doing.

These are the same people saying trans people want to rape children and put litterboxes in school.

There is probably at least one trans person in the world who wants to rape children, and one who wants to put litterboxes in schools. I don't know what particular incidents you're referring to, but presumably some members of the political right found some of these ridiculous cases and then tried to present them as representative of the entire trans movement, which is clearly not the the case.

But as far as I'm aware the majority of republicans are not making those claims, so I don't think it's accurate to say that those people are representative of the entire right half of the political spectrum.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing I don't know why you think I am saying everyone on the right is a bigot. I do think that many of them are. That is not the same as saying that all of them are. Also, it's kind of crazy to say that this is a fringe issue, when in places like Florida they're actively Banning people from even mentioning transgender people in school. I don't think there's any real use and continuing this discussion, because I think we're talking past each other at this point, and you seem to be inferring claims I'm not making.

predicts NO

Also, sorry if I lost some of my civility here. This is a topic I am very scared about, and I think that might get the better of me sometimes. If these folks got their way, my life would be seriously fucked with

Related:

predicts NO

I assume this resolves no if you are expecting via surrogacy, artificial womb, or partner?

I don't see a path to anyone doing the research to prove this safe in the next few years, and I doubt it would be permitted in the absence of that.

predicts NO

@MartinRandall I assumed it only resolves NO in 2037

predicts NO

@Yev correct

Before I am >40, I will be pregnant (presumably via uterine transplant), 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules