Aella avatar
Aella ​
closes Dec 31, 2025
Will I have a baby by the end of 2025?
24%
chance

A baby at any stage of production counts, 'being pregnant' at the end of 2025 will resolve a yes. If I become pregnant and then become unpregnant without producing a baby before the end of 2025, this will not count as a yes.


I have no serious babydaddy prospects right now.


I'm in potential talks with one who might do a sperm + financial support scenario, but chances of this actually working out are pretty low.


I am currently not sure I want a baby, but would still like to arrange my life in advance such that if I do become sure I want one, I could in fact do it pretty fast.

I was born February 1992; at the time of writing this question I am 30, and by the end of 2025 I will be 33.

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AndrewSabisky avatar
Andrew Sabiskybought Ṁ30 of YES

baby rabies typically starts to hit badly around this age, & Aella a) can presumably afford it independently and b) has an army of simps to provide sperm c) could plausibly get sperm from very high-status men w/ a modicum of effort? am a buyer at 21%, seems too low, more like 37 would be reasonable

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Rayis predicting NO at 29%

Probability of having a baby within 3 years? Outside view, 100 births per 1000 women per year in that age group, but that includes a bunch of people who are already married / already in a LTR / much more conservative than Aella. It also includes a bunch of twins and second/third births. So 30% is probably a big overestimate even before factoring in Aella's individual characteristics that make her dating pool exceptionally narrow. I'm going to guesstimate half of 30%.

MP avatar
MPis predicting YES at 27%

@JonathanRay the fact she created this market is evidence of yes

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Rayis predicting NO at 31%
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

How do each of these scenarios resolve?

  • You adopt a baby.

  • You're pregnant at the end of 2025, but the baby is not currently alive.

  • You're pregnant with a live baby at the end of 2025, but there's a high probability the baby will not be born alive.

  • You use a surrogate mother, and they're pregnant with your egg at the end of 2025.

  • You have a baby, then give them away for adoption or they die before the end of 2025.

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleyis predicting NO at 30%

This is diabolical market manipulation. Buying NO and then "helpfully" asking for clarification about various terrifying scenarios...

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleysold Ṁ23 of NO

Hi @Aella, just to clarify, if you have a baby, but that plump little angel brings ten times more joy to your life than you imagined, will you be resolving this just a regular YES, or resolving to YES at 1000% (where you send the bonus M$ to all holders of YES shares)?

Aella avatar
Aella ​is predicting NO at 33%

@IsaacKing 1. any 'cannot back out now' step passed in adoptive process counts as yes
2. counts as no
3. counts as yes
4. counts as yes
5. counts as no