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“And no more than 20% in another market.” - Mr. Wonderful

Theta

https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1689478578218422272

This market should be <5

Maybe it's not the most rational part of me taking, but if you're thinking about how to get sperm and to organize your life in terms of being able to be a mom, I can already see that bump :)

https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1631202480116871168

Important note - Aella has started crochetting - these domestic skills are a core feminine trait and are deliberately used to signal old-school womanliness - yes she made something slutty but still IMO this is a positive step down the road to white picket fence + a baby.

@AndrewSabisky that's it, she's clearly going trad-cath. What are the odds on 3 babies by the end of 25?

bumping my NO limit order up from 24 to 30 just because it wasn't enough of a margin above the risk free rate. I think the true odds are 14%

I feel aella is way too autistic and unaffected by normal women urges(just think about the shower thing) to go for the whole baby spiel - it's a no for me

baby rabies typically starts to hit badly around this age, & Aella a) can presumably afford it independently and b) has an army of simps to provide sperm c) could plausibly get sperm from very high-status men w/ a modicum of effort? am a buyer at 21%, seems too low, more like 37 would be reasonable

Probability of having a baby within 3 years? Outside view, 100 births per 1000 women per year in that age group, but that includes a bunch of people who are already married / already in a LTR / much more conservative than Aella. It also includes a bunch of twins and second/third births. So 30% is probably a big overestimate even before factoring in Aella's individual characteristics that make her dating pool exceptionally narrow. I'm going to guesstimate half of 30%.

@JonathanRay the fact she created this market is evidence of yes

arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-aella-ever-have-a-baby

How do each of these scenarios resolve?

• You adopt a baby.

• You're pregnant at the end of 2025, but the baby is not currently alive.

• You're pregnant with a live baby at the end of 2025, but there's a high probability the baby will not be born alive.

• You use a surrogate mother, and they're pregnant with your egg at the end of 2025.

• You have a baby, then give them away for adoption or they die before the end of 2025.

This is diabolical market manipulation. Buying NO and then "helpfully" asking for clarification about various terrifying scenarios...

Hi @Aella, just to clarify, if you have a baby, but that plump little angel brings ten times more joy to your life than you imagined, will you be resolving this just a regular YES, or resolving to YES at 1000% (where you send the bonus M$ to all holders of YES shares)?

@IsaacKing 1. any 'cannot back out now' step passed in adoptive process counts as yes
2. counts as no
3. counts as yes
4. counts as yes
5. counts as no