Will any genetically modified human embryo be legally born by the end of 2025?
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2026
36%
chance

Editing the human genome is a controversial technique that is surrounded by scientific and ethical debates, and research is still ongoing to ensure that edits do not result in side effects in the future, including unwanted mutations or increase the risk of other diseases.

As of 2020, there was still no international regulation on the subject, but an international commission with members from ten countries had been formed to discuss the issue. In September of that year, the commission argued that genetic editing in human embryos could be used in cases of serious monogenic hereditary diseases - that is, those caused by the mutation in a single gene - such as cystic fibrosis, thalassemia, and sickle cell anemia.

For these cases, studies would be necessary to prove that the edit was accurate - i.e. it is present in all cells of the embryo - and that there is no evidence of unwanted edits. Under these conditions, it would then be up to the authorities to allow the practice on human embryos.

If any genetically modified human embryo who was edited (with permission by government authorities) to avoid serious monogenic hereditary diseases is born by December 31, 2025, this market will be resolved as "yes".

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I assume the He Jiankui case does not count?

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