The fertilization must occur via sex and the baby must be born via somewhat normal childbirth rather than a cesarean section. The process must be relativly safe and not highly experimental, and it must be cheap enough to be available to the middle class.
It does still count if it's only possible based on actions taken during childhood, such as hormones to change pelvis growth.
So let's count backwards from 2035
FDA approval 1 year
Phase 3 recruitment and running trials, 5 years
Phase 2 trials 3 years
Development of the procedure in humans 5 years
Development of procedure in animals 4 years
Fundraising and company formation 3 years
It's 2023 and following this insanely optimistic timeline takes 21 years, getting us to 2044 if there are no scientific FDA or socal delays. Also we would need to find people willing to invest 1b+ in this
This is going to zero
Some longer term versions:
Hey all - curious at the tagging here. I'm a straight biological male - but I'm interested in this from a more transhuman perspective. i.e. - no gender issues/wanting to change/overcome that - more am thinking that sure, in 100 or 1000 years, if we survive and achieve complete biological control of our bodies, this might just happen naturally or for convenience, w/out it being an identity or rights issue at all.
@L but if it's so surreal will anyone be having children "normally"? Am I going to take the "normal" risk of dying in labor when I can instead not do that?
@MartinRandall probably not, but if we can do the extra wacky things, we can do normal pregnancy
2035 is a bit soon to complete testing, but it seems likely to me that this will only require touching a bioelectric communication machine for a few minutes, then wait a month or two as your body reshapes itself. you may need genetic editing, which would push out timelines further. the problem is testing it well enough that someone can actually get pregnant after their body layout finishes self-diffusing to the new form. that may take another five to ten years depending on how many experiments are needed. thing is, bioelectric tech is super cheap to implement once the designs are understood, it's figuring out how to build it that's hard - contrast eg medical magnets (mri, tms, etc). because of that low marginal cost and high demand, I'm sure at least one country will allow pushing this research forward. the real question in my mind is whether it'll focus first on general healing rather than body form transition specifically.
Look y'all, I'm very interested in this, but the idea that it would happen without a C-section is crazy. In order for that to happen, you would need to either have surgery which very invasively modifies your pelvis, or start taking hormones much before you're 25. It's also not at all obvious to me that a neovagina would be able to expand that much. You're already expected to dilate in order to keep it the proper size in the first place, I can't imagine a baby's head will fit well
@LivInTheLookingGlass I guess this resolves based on a single person doing it, who maybe did start hormones in childhood. But I think your bet is solid.
@MartinRandall Can't just be a single person, needs to be an established procedure. But requiring hormones early on in life is fine, that'll still be good enough to resolve this to YES.