The fertilization must occur via sex and the baby must be born via somewhat normal childbirth rather than a cesarean section. The process must be relativly safe and not highly experimental, and it must be cheap enough to be available to the middle class.
It does still count if it's only possible based on actions taken during childhood, such as hormones to change pelvis growth.
another prediction I'd make is that the resulting person would be biologically 100% female. no differences left.
looking more likely. I imagine cis people will want their diseases fixed first or whatever, but this is going to be a surreal time for healthcare, if we don't die of ai powered war.
@L but if it's so surreal will anyone be having children "normally"? Am I going to take the "normal" risk of dying in labor when I can instead not do that?
A world where this is possible also seems like a world with artificial wombs and vaginal fertilization and birth are a quaint relic of the before times.
@MartinRandall But surely some people would still want the option?
2035 is a bit soon to complete testing, but it seems likely to me that this will only require touching a bioelectric communication machine for a few minutes, then wait a month or two as your body reshapes itself. you may need genetic editing, which would push out timelines further. the problem is testing it well enough that someone can actually get pregnant after their body layout finishes self-diffusing to the new form. that may take another five to ten years depending on how many experiments are needed. thing is, bioelectric tech is super cheap to implement once the designs are understood, it's figuring out how to build it that's hard - contrast eg medical magnets (mri, tms, etc). because of that low marginal cost and high demand, I'm sure at least one country will allow pushing this research forward. the real question in my mind is whether it'll focus first on general healing rather than body form transition specifically.
Look y'all, I'm very interested in this, but the idea that it would happen without a C-section is crazy. In order for that to happen, you would need to either have surgery which very invasively modifies your pelvis, or start taking hormones much before you're 25. It's also not at all obvious to me that a neovagina would be able to expand that much. You're already expected to dilate in order to keep it the proper size in the first place, I can't imagine a baby's head will fit well
@LivInTheLookingGlass I guess this resolves based on a single person doing it, who maybe did start hormones in childhood. But I think your bet is solid.
@MartinRandall Can't just be a single person, needs to be an established procedure. But requiring hormones early on in life is fine, that'll still be good enough to resolve this to YES.
@IsaacKing well, thanks for the free money then 🙂