Will a trans woman give birth before 2033?

This July the first woman to receive a uterus transplant outside a clinical trial gave birth.

This market resolves YES if a trans woman receives a uterus transplant and successfully gives birth before 2033. This market resolves no if that does not happen.


For the purposes of this market a trans woman is a woman who was assigned male at birth and was born without a uterus.

For the woman to successfully give birth she must 1) carry the pregnancy to the point of fetal viability (23/24 weeks) and 2) survive. The baby 3) must not die of complications that arose during pregnancy.


The above criteria are intentionally too stringent. First, it seems possible, although unlikely, that a trans woman could be assigned male at birth and be born with a uterus if she was intersex. Thus, I think I am excluding some trans women with this definition. I am also excluding many non-binary people who would also be interested.

Second, it seems quite plausible that complications may arise which cause the baby or mother to die during pregnancy which are unrelated to the transplant as pregnancy is risky.


I'm a trans woman. I'm not sure if I want to have kids yet, but it would be nice to have options. My own interest is partially why the resolution criteria are so stringent and why I chose 2033 as the resolution date.

I also hope this market will help other women (cis and trans) to know when these options will be available.

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I missed a bunch of previous related markets which are relevant. These are not quite asking the same question because they require fertilization during sex.

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