By the end of 2045, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally?
Basic
35
3.8k
2046
21%
chance

The fertilization must occur via sex and the baby must be born via somewhat normal childbirth rather than a cesarean section. The process must be relativly safe and not highly experimental, and it must be cheap enough to be available to the middle class.

It does still count if it's only possible based on actions taken during childhood, such as hormones to change pelvis growth.

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Would you mind having a duplicate market for IVF + c-section?

predicts YES

@LivInTheLookingGlass I'm no longer making markets on Manifold. Feel free to make one yourself. :)

Does premature birth count?

predicts YES

@PartiallyTyped As long as it's similar to premature birth from a cis woman, yes.

@IsaacKing What about a medically necessary premature birth at 7-8 months?

@PartiallyTyped The thought process is that it may be necessary due to pelvis issues.

The cheap enough part is doubtable... especially since it's male to female and not female to male. Biologically, the deterioration of the Mullerian ducts would be tougher to remediate than the creation of the archinephric duct.

Could someone betting Yes at >50% please explain what your thought process is? Was there some medical breakthrough I didn't hear about that suddenly makes it possible to grow ovaries, and fallopian tubes, and a uterus...

@jonsimon Perhaps a failure to carefully read the desription? It does seem unlikely to be cheap and available even if possible. I don't think there's a huge economic incentive to develop this technology.

@jonsimon Et tu, @IsaacKing ? 😢

@jonsimon Why the sadness? You should be glad I'm taking your bet! :)

predicts NO

That's one way to look at it 🙃

predicts YES

@jonsimon Yo, trans here (and new to the site!) There's surgeries to implant donor sexual organs right now, and you're betting that no progress will be made to make that affordable in the next two decades when there's already pushes towards biotech.

Also, the pelvis growth thing in the description above is partially irrelevant - hormonal therapy DOES change skeletal structure over time (I've lost 2 shoe sizes and about 3 inches of height, and some people who have been transitioned for more than 10 years have reported hip growth)

Either way, this market can only go up.

There are whole organ systems missing... this is so astronomically far from being feasible...

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