Two things must happen for this market to resolve "YES":

1) We need three major polls with a > 50% response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs). We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.

2) Humans must then deliberately cause an "AI winter" which causes the rate of AI development to significantly slow. This latter part will be resolved somewhat subjectively but I'll do my best to base it on convincing measurable signals. It doesn't matter which humans cause the winter or how they go about creating it, just that there's a clear intention of bringing about an AI winter, and that an AI winter actually happens. If an AI winter happens and nobody seems to have intentionally caused it, that doesn't count. If someone claims credit for causing an AI winter after the fact, their argument will have to convince me personally.

If condition 1) is not fulfilled, then this market resolves N/A.

If condition 1) and 2) are fulfilled, then this market resolves YES.

If condition 1) is fulfilled and 2) is not, then this market resolves NO.

The resolution date for this market is 2030.