Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
92
10kṀ11k
2035
41%
chance

Criteria for Resolution:

1. Assassination Attempt: An assassination attempt is defined as any deliberate action intended to kill the CEO of a major AI lab. The attempt must be publicly reported and confirmed by credible sources, such as news agencies, law enforcement reports, or official statements from the affected company.

2. Major AI Labs: Currently, the definition of major AI labs for this question includes OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind. As time progresses, new labs can be added or removed from this list, but the labs must be generally considered top-tier in the AI research and development field. The total number of labs on the list will not exceed five at any given time.

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Does it count if the AI itself assassinates the CEO?

@Paulf4db Yes.

“Any deliberate action to kill” does this count things that wouldn’t typically be counted as assassinations, like domestic violence?

@AlexanderMiller Please see the clarification in the comments in the related market: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-e11b3ab4b5c7?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y

bought Ṁ50 YES

Would this have counted, had it been Sam Altman instead of Elon Musk?

https://www.nysun.com/article/elon-musk-says-two-mentally-ill-people-tried-to-assassinate-him

@colorednoise There’s a good chance Elon will count as “CEO of a major AI lab” soon

@colorednoise No. Just claims from the alleged victims do not qualify.

bought Ṁ10 NO

A related market: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-e11b3ab4b5c7?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y

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