Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?

156

Ṁ1kṀ79k

resolved Sep 22

Resolved

YES

ALL

Criteria for Resolution:

1. Assassination Attempt: An assassination attempt is defined as any deliberate action intended to kill the CEO of a major AI lab. The attempt must be publicly reported and confirmed by credible sources, such as news agencies, law enforcement reports, or official statements from the affected company.

2. Major AI Labs: Currently, the definition of major AI labs for this question includes OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind. As time progresses, new labs can be added or removed from this list, but the labs must be generally considered top-tier in the AI research and development field. The total number of labs on the list will not exceed five at any given time.

Technology

OpenAI

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This market has the same criteria as this other market by the same creator, and it is already resolved YES. I feel confident that I am resolving this in alignment with the original author's intent. /IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1

bought Ṁ9,240 YES

@IhorKendiukhov Shouldn't this have resolved already from the attack on Sam Altman earlier this year
On April 10, 2026, Daniel Moreno-Gama allegedly traveled from Texas to San Francisco and threw a lit Molotov cocktail at Sam Altman’s residences at about 3:30 a.m. The April 13 U.S. Attorney release says he traveled “in order to kill” the CEO of a major AI company; police found additional incendiary devices, kerosene, and a document advocating killing AI-company CEOs, admitting the attempt, and addressing the victim with “If by some miracle you live.” The same release says he then tried to enter the AI company’s headquarters and threatened to burn it and kill people inside. The underlying federal complaint identifies the victim as CEO of an AI research-and-deployment company. OpenAI and Altman were publicly identified by major reporting.

The San Francisco District Attorney independently charged Moreno-Gama with two counts of attempted murder and alleges he threw the device where his target would be asleep and vulnerable. Charges remain allegations and the defendant is presumed innocent, but the market does not require a conviction. Its specified evidentiary standard is credible public confirmation; detailed, concordant federal and local law-enforcement accounts satisfy that standard far better than the unsupported victim claims the creator excluded.

https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/pr/texas-man-faces-multiple-federal-charges-related-attack-ai-company-and-its-ceo
https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1435876/dl

@JasonMendoza2008 @prismatic aha

bought Ṁ250 NO

@JasonMendoza2008 No. This person was caught and charged for multiple crimes, but not attempted murder.

@VitorBosshard

ok broski

bought Ṁ25 NO

@JasonMendoza2008 @mods I just want an opinion on this quickly, creator is pretty inactive (traded on one market three days ago and then before that not for a month or so)

@Qoiuoiuoiu He's not inactive though?

@JasonMendoza2008 Also the creator told me personally he would consider that a YES so i'm not too worried about him not being around

@JasonMendoza2008 Hmm... ok. Just judging by his activity on manifold, it seems like he is.

@JasonMendoza2008 I am holding no but don't disagree

@JasonMendoza2008 I don't think this counts

@nsokolsky Same author already resolved this YES. There is no ambiguity here.

/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 99.0% order

@SIMOROBO Oh, in that case this can resolve YES already.

Creator seems semi-active. Let's see if they put their stamp of approval on this themselves.

@IhorKendiukhov Wanna step up to the plate?

@Quroe No response, may I suggest a YES resolution is appropriate?

edit: i also have no money left from eking out every last bit of liquidity on this market so a swift resolution atp would be appreciated lol

@Qoiuoiuoiu you can sell if needed there’s a limit order at 99 you’ll basically get everything back

bought Ṁ1,911 YES

@JasonMendoza2008 If I sell now I lose 180 mana in potential profit 🤑🤑🤑

opened a Ṁ20,000 YES at 99.0% order

@Qoiuoiuoiu yeah but you can invest in other markets and make 300

@JasonMendoza2008 I'm not good enough at manifold for that also I still have 4k balance left so I'm not dead broke...

This is on my radar now to review. I'll try to take a deeper look later tonight, but please forgive me if I don't.

bought Ṁ2,000 YES

Does ScarJo’s absolute murder of sama count? 😂😂😂

Don't make this a prize market, or else this turns into an assassination market 😉

Does it count if e.g. A CEO is murdered by her husband in a domestic violence incident unrelated to her being the CEO of a major lab? What about if a CEO gets into a bar fight and dies as a result?

@Mad For the sake of consistency, yes. The probability of such cases is very small compared to the probability that this market has or will ever have. Removing such cases will not change the market probabilities but only add confusion.