This market is for fun, and I do not encourage any type of harm to any OpenAI employee or individual. Do not attempt this. This is a market prediction about whether this event could happen, not an encouragement for it.
Resolves YES:
There is an attempt of murder against any OpenAI employee (who, at the time, is working for OpenAI and that fact is known by the public before or as a result of the events) for any reason related to refusal of AI development or similar.
It doesn't matter if it is successful or not.
It must be reported by news and formally stated by police/law enforcement as an actual attempt of murder.
Planning stopped prior to attempting doesn't count. Attempt of murder here refers to the actual act of trying to murder someone and not the planning.
Applies to OpenAI if they rebrand or merge.
Resolves NO:
The YES criteria are not met before 2050.
OpenAI is dissolved or splits.
OP Trading: Given the objective nature of this market’s resolution, I reserve the right to place bets. However, I will do so only after at least 5 trades or trade orders from different traders have been made, to avoid any unfair advantage.
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Shouldn't this have resolved already from the attack on Sam Altman earlier this year
On April 10, 2026, Daniel Moreno-Gama allegedly traveled from Texas to San Francisco and threw a lit Molotov cocktail at Sam Altman’s residences at about 3:30 a.m. The April 13 U.S. Attorney release says he traveled “in order to kill” the CEO of a major AI company; police found additional incendiary devices, kerosene, and a document advocating killing AI-company CEOs, admitting the attempt, and addressing the victim with “If by some miracle you live.” The same release says he then tried to enter the AI company’s headquarters and threatened to burn it and kill people inside. The underlying federal complaint identifies the victim as CEO of an AI research-and-deployment company. OpenAI and Altman were publicly identified by major reporting.
The San Francisco District Attorney independently charged Moreno-Gama with two counts of attempted murder and alleges he threw the device where his target would be asleep and vulnerable. Charges remain allegations and the defendant is presumed innocent, but the market does not require a conviction. Its specified evidentiary standard is credible public confirmation; detailed, concordant federal and local law-enforcement accounts satisfy that standard far better than the unsupported victim claims the creator excluded.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/pr/texas-man-faces-multiple-federal-charges-related-attack-ai-company-and-its-ceo
https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1435876/dl
@JasonMendoza2008 You're right, thanks for pointing this out and for the detailed sources. I've reviewed them and agree that this meets the YES criteria.
The authorities describe an attack that was actually carried out, not just a threat or a plan stopped before anything happened. The state attempted murder charges and the evidence of an anti-AI motive described in the federal complaint are enough to meet the requirements here, in my view.
The criteria require news coverage and formal identification by law enforcement as an actual murder attempt, not a conviction. Requiring a conviction now would be adding a condition that wasn't in the original criteria. So I'll resolve this YES.