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MANIFOLD
Will there be a public assasination attempt on Elon Musk by EOY 2027
56
Ṁ1kṀ10k
an hour ago
75%
chance
56

Background Elon Musk has reported facing multiple assassination attempts, including two near Tesla's Gigafactory in Austin, Texas in recent months. As CEO of multiple high-profile companies (Tesla, SpaceX, X) and one of the world's wealthiest individuals, Musk maintains a controversial public presence and has been involved in various political discussions. He has previously acknowledged increasing his security measures in response to threats.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if there is a credible assassination attempt on Elon Musk before December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A credible attempt must meet at least one of the following criteria:

  • Law enforcement confirms an assassination attempt

  • Criminal charges are filed related to an assassination attempt

  • Clear physical evidence of an attempt on Musk's life is publicly documented

  • Musk or his security team provides evidence of a genuine attempt that is corroborated by law enforcement or credible media sources

The market will resolve NO if no credible assassination attempt occurs by the resolution date.

Considerations

  • Social media threats or unsubstantiated claims without evidence will not count as assassination attempts

  • If Musk dies from natural causes or accidents unrelated to assassination attempts, the market resolves NO

  • In the event of Musk's death under suspicious circumstances, resolution will depend on official investigation findings regarding whether an assassination attempt occurred

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bought Ṁ2,000 YES

Pretty sure this already qualifies. In July a federal grand jury indicted eight men for conspiracy to commit murder over the plot to attack the White House UFC event, and prosecutors said the targets included Trump, Vance, Netanyahu and Elon Musk (The Nightly, NBC Washington). The criteria count “criminal charges are filed related to an assassination attempt,” which is exactly what happened. @SntTGR R can this resolve YES?

@EvanWang11j3 @SntTGR Closing market so we aren't trading on the interpretation.

@Quroe icl im pretty sure it meets all the resolution criteria so it should resolve yes

If there isnt, Elon will clam there is