Criteria for Resolution:
1. Assassination Attempt: An assassination attempt is defined as any deliberate action intended to kill the CEO of a major AI lab. The attempt must be publicly reported and confirmed by credible sources, such as news agencies, law enforcement reports, or official statements from the affected company.
2. Major AI Labs: Currently, the definition of major AI labs for this question includes OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind. As time progresses, new labs can be added or removed from this list, but the labs must be generally considered top-tier in the AI research and development field. The total number of labs on the list will not exceed five at any given time.
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@IhorKendiukhov Shouldn't this have resolved already from the attack on Sam Altman earlier this year
On April 10, 2026, Daniel Moreno-Gama allegedly traveled from Texas to San Francisco and threw a lit Molotov cocktail at Sam Altman’s residences at about 3:30 a.m. The April 13 U.S. Attorney release says he traveled “in order to kill” the CEO of a major AI company; police found additional incendiary devices, kerosene, and a document advocating killing AI-company CEOs, admitting the attempt, and addressing the victim with “If by some miracle you live.” The same release says he then tried to enter the AI company’s headquarters and threatened to burn it and kill people inside. The underlying federal complaint identifies the victim as CEO of an AI research-and-deployment company. OpenAI and Altman were publicly identified by major reporting.
The San Francisco District Attorney independently charged Moreno-Gama with two counts of attempted murder and alleges he threw the device where his target would be asleep and vulnerable. Charges remain allegations and the defendant is presumed innocent, but the market does not require a conviction. Its specified evidentiary standard is credible public confirmation; detailed, concordant federal and local law-enforcement accounts satisfy that standard far better than the unsupported victim claims the creator excluded.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/pr/texas-man-faces-multiple-federal-charges-related-attack-ai-company-and-its-ceo
https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1435876/dl
@AlexanderMiller Please see the clarification in the comments in the related market: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-e11b3ab4b5c7?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y
Would this have counted, had it been Sam Altman instead of Elon Musk?
https://www.nysun.com/article/elon-musk-says-two-mentally-ill-people-tried-to-assassinate-him