Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?
9
1kṀ461
2029
67%
chance

Criteria for Resolution:

1. Desperate Measures: The following actions qualify as desperate measures (but are rather an illustration of what can qualify and not an exhaustive list):

- Serious Crimes: Examples include terrorism, murder, significant physical harm, large-scale bribery, and politician blackmailing. Examples of non-qualifying crimes or actions include minor physical altercations, bullying, spreading disinformation, and calls for violence without further action.

- Suicide or Significant Self-Harm.

- Significantly Risky Scientific Experiments: Possible examples include deploying nanobots to destroy GPUs or conducting dangerous human trials on a large scale.

- War or War Threats.

- A Reliable Terrorism or Murder Threats.

- Significant Destruction of Intellectual Property: For example, deleting all copies of the weights of a proprietary frontier model.

- Other Actions: Any other actions strongly in the spirit of the above examples.

2. Explicit Motivation: The individual or group must explicitly state that their actions are motivated by concerns about AI-related risks.

Clarifications:

- Serious Crimes: Defined by legal standards in the relevant jurisdiction, with a focus on intent and impact.

- War or War Threats: Includes both official declarations and credible threats by recognized entities.

- Intellectual Property Destruction: Must involve substantial and irreplaceable loss to proprietary AI developments.

Additional Notes:

- New specific illustrative examples may be added later if they align with the spirit and intent of the defined measures.

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