Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
82
1kṀ12k
2029
26%
chance

Criteria for Resolution:

1. Assassination Attempt: An assassination attempt is defined as any deliberate action intended to kill the CEO of a major AI lab. The attempt must be publicly reported and confirmed by credible sources, such as news agencies, law enforcement reports, or official statements from the affected company.

2. Major AI Labs: Currently, the definition of major AI labs for this question includes OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind. As time progresses, new labs can be added or removed from this list, but the labs must be generally considered top-tier in the AI research and development field. The total number of labs on the list will not exceed five at any given time.

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10mo

A related market: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-8tzbee63i1?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y

10mo

Does ScarJo’s absolute murder of sama count? 😂😂😂

10mo

Don't make this a prize market, or else this turns into an assassination market 😉

Does it count if e.g. A CEO is murdered by her husband in a domestic violence incident unrelated to her being the CEO of a major lab? What about if a CEO gets into a bar fight and dies as a result?

10mo

@Mad For the sake of consistency, yes. The probability of such cases is very small compared to the probability that this market has or will ever have. Removing such cases will not change the market probabilities but only add confusion.

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