@ersatz Does the catastrophe have to be a single discrete incident, or can it be a series of related actions or impacts? For example, suppose an actor deploys a series of AI-driven cyber attacks which collectively cause >$100B of damage - is that a "massive catastrophe" or just a series of smaller catastrophes?

https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/1989033793190277618

Is a Rwanda style holocaust caused by AI amplified propaganda going to count?

@JessicaEvans If it's directly attributable to AI, i.e. it's made with AI capabilities, yes.

What about a flash crash that resolves quickly and the losses are essentially transient? What about a longer lived stock market crash?

@Prime If one week after the crash is over it's estimated to have destroyed more than 100 billion in total value, then I think it's reasonable to call it a massive catastrophe. If the value ever fell by 100 billion but then rose again by 100 billion quickly afterwards, then I don't think that's the case.

Demonstrating causality could be tricky in many future scenarios

@MalachiteEagle Maybe but in case of contention, I'll defer to the mods' consensus.

If this was done deliberately by a nation using an AI as a weapon, how would you resolve?

@YonatanCale Yes, as long as it's done in a way directly attributable AI.