Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
34
1kṀ34872030
29%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By “massive catastrophe”, I mean any disaster that has caused at least 1,000,000 deaths or US$100 billion in damage directly attributable to AI, for example a pandemic virus engineered with the help of AI, or a cyberattack taking down some electrical grid.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
6% chance
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
34% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
9% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
11% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
7% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
30% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
3% chance
Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
82% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
10% chance