Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

Criteria for Resolution:

1. Desperate Measures: The following actions qualify as desperate measures (but are rather an illustration of what can qualify and not an exhaustive list):

- Serious Crimes: Examples include terrorism, murder, significant physical harm, large-scale bribery, and politician blackmailing. Examples of non-qualifying crimes or actions include minor physical altercations, bullying, spreading disinformation, and calls for violence without further action.

- Suicide or Significant Self-Harm.

- Significantly Risky Scientific Experiments: Possible examples include deploying nanobots to destroy GPUs or conducting dangerous human trials on a large scale.

- War or War Threats.

- A Reliable Terrorism or Murder Threats.

- Significant Destruction of Intellectual Property: For example, deleting all copies of the weights of a proprietary frontier model.

- Other Actions: Any other actions strongly in the spirit of the above examples.

2. Explicit Motivation: The individual or group must explicitly state that their actions are motivated by concerns about AI-related risks.


- Serious Crimes: Defined by legal standards in the relevant jurisdiction, with a focus on intent and impact.

- War or War Threats: Includes both official declarations and credible threats by recognized entities.

- Intellectual Property Destruction: Must involve substantial and irreplaceable loss to proprietary AI developments.

Additional Notes:

- New specific illustrative examples may be added later if they align with the spirit and intent of the defined measures.

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I don't think suicide is in the same order of magnitude as the rest of these

I'd say qutting OpenAI and starting Anthropic was relatively speaking rather extreme

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Sad market :(

Is this about global existential risk, or would e.g. a military attack seeking to hinder a competitor's AI ability also qualify?

@Vincent It would also qualify. No subrisks/subcauses within “AI-related risks” are specified in this question.

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