What will be the main constraint to AI development in 2028?
What will be the main constraint to AI development in 2028?
20
1kṀ580
2029
14%
Energy consumption
23%
Semiconductor availability
9%
Data quality and quantity
9%
Algorithmic breakthrough
28%
Diminishing returns
16%
Something else
1.6%
There won't be any constraint

This market is inspired by David Shapiro's video on hard takeoff:

https://youtu.be/71bSV-iHGLE?si=TzS38WnzVHma4OWn

Refer to it (2:18-8:34) for a definition of each.

The market resolves according to the outcome of a poll that I'll run on Manifold with this question at the beginning of 2029.

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2mo

Baking app development continues with the crafting of mobile applications for baking enthusiasts, professionals, and businesses. Features often include recipe sharing, ingredient calculators, instructional videos, and baking timers. Customized features may allow users to keep track of their baking progress and ingredient inventory, and perhaps discover new recipes. A good baking application would be user-friendly in design, functional, and deep in content. The app should be accessible, responsive, and smoothly integrate onto various devices. By integrating community features or e-commerce options, companies can also monetize their apps through sales of baking tools, ingredients, or subscription-based premium content. https://www.ebizneeds.com/fintech-software-development

2mo

One of the main constraints to AI development by 2028 will indeed revolve around navigating the ethical and regulatory landscape. As AI systems become more integrated into critical sectors like healthcare, finance, and even autonomous transportation, developers and organizations will face mounting pressure to ensure that these technologies are transparent, explainable, and fair.

For example, mobile banking apps that leverage AI for personalized services or fraud detection, like the ones developed by Nimble AppGenie (https://www.nimbleappgenie.com/solutions/banking-app-development), must adhere to stringent guidelines to avoid bias and protect user data. In addition, the increasing need for unbiased, high-quality datasets presents a challenge, as the availability and management of such data are critical for accurate AI models. Balancing rapid innovation with ethical responsibility will likely define the trajectory of AI development in the coming years.

bought Ṁ7 YES1y

"Diminishing returns" and "algorithmic breakthrough" are kind of the same thing in this context, no? If we don't have algorithmic breakthrough, we are likely to hit diminishing returns of the current models.

1y

@OlegEterevsky I see your point and indeed there is some overlap, even if not totally, I think. For example, Yann LeCun is claiming that LLMs will never lead to AGI and that we are still missing the algorithms to achieve it, even if there's been substantial progress in that direction

1y

@SimoneRomeo Yann LeCun also claims that company law is enough to align with humanity's values human-mind-basid systems smarter than any individual human, and extrapolates that to it being able to control any AI.

The assertion that company law is able to align even companies is clearly false. Proof by counterexample: LeCun's own employer Meta.

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