What will be the main constraint to AI development in 2028?
20
82
แน€1k
2029
14%
Energy consumption
23%
Semiconductor availability
8%
Data quality and quantity
9%
Algorithmic breakthrough
28%
Diminishing returns
16%
Something else
1.6%
There won't be any constraint

This market is inspired by David Shapiro's video on hard takeoff:

https://youtu.be/71bSV-iHGLE?si=TzS38WnzVHma4OWn

Refer to it (2:18-8:34) for a definition of each.

The market resolves according to the outcome of a poll that I'll run on Manifold with this question at the beginning of 2029.

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bought แน€7 Diminishing returns YES

"Diminishing returns" and "algorithmic breakthrough" are kind of the same thing in this context, no? If we don't have algorithmic breakthrough, we are likely to hit diminishing returns of the current models.

@OlegEterevsky I see your point and indeed there is some overlap, even if not totally, I think. For example, Yann LeCun is claiming that LLMs will never lead to AGI and that we are still missing the algorithms to achieve it, even if there's been substantial progress in that direction

@SimoneRomeo Yann LeCun also claims that company law is enough to align with humanity's values human-mind-basid systems smarter than any individual human, and extrapolates that to it being able to control any AI.

The assertion that company law is able to align even companies is clearly false. Proof by counterexample: LeCun's own employer Meta.

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