What will be the main constraint to AI development in 2028?
20
1kṀ5802029
14%
Energy consumption
23%
Semiconductor availability
9%
Data quality and quantity
9%
Algorithmic breakthrough
28%
Diminishing returns
16%
Something else
1.6%
There won't be any constraint
This market is inspired by David Shapiro's video on hard takeoff:
https://youtu.be/71bSV-iHGLE?si=TzS38WnzVHma4OWn
Refer to it (2:18-8:34) for a definition of each.
The market resolves according to the outcome of a poll that I'll run on Manifold with this question at the beginning of 2029.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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