Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035? | Manifold

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

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Discussed briefly in the "We can do better" section of Holden Karnofsky's blog post: "How we could stumble into AI catastrophe".

Resolves positively if:

Holden himself publicly claims that this specific illustrative scenario has already come to pass
Multiple news organizations report generally that AI development standards have been developed and are being enforced internationally
My personal friends that are most well-acquainted with AI agree with me that this question should resolve positively

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There are more than 25 countries that have laws mandating that they follow US regulatory decisions on things like medical devices. So it's more likely this will be achieved through deference than cooperation.

Can you please confirm if you intend to resolve yes or no given the EU adopts AI development standards?

predictedNO

@RobertCousineau While still pointing to the resolution guidelines in the description, yes I think AI development guidelines developed & enforced by the EU would suffice.

The EU almost certainly will, and they are more than 25 countries, so yes.

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Will any developed country establish a limit on compute for AI training by 2026?

Will we have a sufficient level of international coordination to ensure that AI is no longer threat before 2030?

Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?

By end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?

Will National Governments Collectively Give More than $100M a year in funding for AI Alignment by 2030?

Will a global AI watchdog be set up in London, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency, by Jan 1 2026?

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