Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028? | Manifold

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

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2028

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This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 that requires a license to develop frontier AI models, which are defined as those with highly general capabilities (over a certain threshold) or trained with a certain compute budget (e.g. as much compute as $1 billion can buy today). The policy aims to improve government visibility into potentially dangerous AI model development, allow more control over their proliferation, and also make other compute governance policies more feasible.

Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.

Market context

Open Philanthropy: 12 Tenative Ideas for US AI Policy

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