
Will California impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
12
1kṀ2882029
18%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve yes if California imposes restrictions that are sufficient to prevent the training of an AI more advanced than GPT-4 before 2030.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
This seems very unlikely to me, because there are soon going to be a bunch of AIs more powerful than GPT-4 out there. I wouldn't be surprised if California were to restrict training AIs more advanced than whatever is the state of the art as of the time of the laws' passing before 2030; I would be surprised if they set the threshold at GPT-4's level in specific.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?
15% chance
Will California pass an AI Safety bill in 2025?
97% chance
Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
12% chance
Will any large company leave California because of AI regulations? (2025)
If Biden is elected in 2024, will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
25% chance
Conditional on California SB 1047 law, will an AI cause $500 million in damage by end of 2026?
If Trump is elected in 2024, will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
14% chance
Will California's AI training data transparency law go into effect in 2026?
52% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)
19% chance
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?
17% chance