Will the US implement a policy for rapid shutdown of large compute clusters and training runs by 2028?
11
Ṁ190Ṁ1852028
33%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 that requires the implementation of rapid shutdown mechanisms for large compute clusters and training runs. These mechanisms could include non-networked power cutoff switches for large compute clusters or remote shutdown systems on chips, with the goal of enabling swift response in emergency situations.
Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?
42% chance
Will the US Government implement "Universal Basic Compute" by 2030?
11% chance
Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
5% chance
China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
6% chance
Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?
77% chance
Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
12% chance
Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2030 be in the United States?
74% chance
Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?
42% chance
Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2035 be in the United States?
69% chance
Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2040 be in the United States?
46% chance