Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
36
600Ṁ6977Sep 2
42%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
61% chance
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Will an AI model surpasses o3's matharena.ai 88% Overall score by July 1, 2025?
15% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
58% chance
Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?
37% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
10% chance
Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025?
25% chance
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
75% chance
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
10% chance
Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025?
40% chance