AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?
27
1kṀ4518Oct 6
74%
chance
10
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Jack Clark predicts YES: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-439-ai-kernels-decentralized.
Resolves to YES if any LLM released prior to 1 Oct 2026 exceeds the human baseline of 61.77% on https://posttrainbench.com/. Reasonable time (to at most 1 Nov) will be given after the deadline in case a model is released close to the deadline that might do it. Result does not have to appear on posttrainbench.com per se but needs to be credible, and not contradicted by the website.
Resolves to NO if this does not occur.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
62% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?
2036
AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?
27% chance
AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2029?
73% chance
Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
95% chance
AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?
16% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
37% chance
AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?
49% chance
AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?
87% chance
AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?
2028