Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?
7
Ṁ100Ṁ1.4kDec 31
12%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will be looking toward https://www.tbench.ai/ for evals, using the terminus 2 scaffolding.
Only counts if the number in the model’s name increments, so a new Claude Sonnet 4.5 checkpoint does not count.
If a new Sonnet model is not released by 2027 this will resolve NA
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Have Claude Sonnet 4.5 model weights leaked before October 2025?
1% chance
Will Anthropic release a first-party image generation model in 2026?
43% chance
Which month will Anthropic release Sonnet 5?
Will Manifold consider Claude Sonnet 4.6 to be a frontier model?
82% chance
Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
24% chance
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
21% chance
Will Anthropic ever drop out of the capabilities race despite ability to continue?
11% chance
When will an AI lab report 50% or better result on ZeroBench?