Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon that is an 1 hour and 30 minutes by September 2026?
2
150Ṁ502026
69%
chance
19
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This Question resolves YES if METR makes it known publicly that an AI model has an 80% time horizon of an hour and 30 minutes
It also resolves YES if it is above an hour and 30 minutes by September 2026
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
33% chance
Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025?
36% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
55% chance
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
52% chance
Will a model achieve a METR 50% time-horizon of 4+ hours by the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
15% chance
Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025?
34% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
4% chance
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
41% chance