Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon that is an 1 hour and 30 minutes by September 2026?
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Ṁ200Ṁ1.2kresolved Apr 22
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This Question resolves YES if METR makes it known publicly that an AI model has an 80% time horizon of an hour and 30 minutes
It also resolves YES if it is above an hour and 30 minutes by September 2026
METR has updated their time horizon test suite to include more tasks I guess going forward it will follow the 1.1 standard
Update 2026-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is about to resolve this market YES, citing that Gemini 3.1 Pro has achieved a time horizon of 1 hour and 30 minutes. Resolution expected within 24 hours.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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