Before 2030 AI causes death of more than 5% of humans in less than a 3 month period.

Basic

Ṁ605

2030

chance

ALL

It is what it sounds like. I don't need to be picky about adjudication criteria. We'll know it if we see it. (God forbid.)

This is a fix for the x-risk shortcoming in these markets. If the claim only resolves as YES if all the humans are dead, then there may not be anyone around to settle the claim. These should trade at 0% or 100% before time discounting.

https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8

https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-humanity-go-extinct-before-203

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

18% chance. If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO. If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES. If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve. See also: @/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d…

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Most cases where this happens are cases where AI kills everyone. This is the relatively narrower and not very likely-seeming case of AI killing half a billion people without disrupting Manifold settlement.

This seems most likely to happen if somebody uses non-superintelligent AI to build a pandemic. Would that even count?

@EliezerYudkowsky Can you elaborate a bit more on your reasoning for why the number of deaths is bimodally distributed across the range of outcomes? Which parameter(s) of the model have this thresholding behavior where AI suddenly goes from “kills no-one” to “kills everyone”?

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