Will Netanyahu remain Israel's PM until the end of 2024?
2k
Dec 31
61%
chance

Resolves YES if Netanyahu continues to be Israel's PM through the end of 2024, NO otherwise.

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sold Ṁ430 NO

I am selling my investment before the value of Mana is decreased to a tenth of its current value on May 15 2024.

Gantz traveling to the US - this could be interesting.

predicts NO

Protestors demand Netanyahu steps down

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Atlantic and guardian calling for Biden to put pressure on Israel to get rid of him:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/12/netanyahu-israel-leadership-us-palestine/676250/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/06/biden-support-netanyahu-gaza-middle-east

Netanyahu's support for prime minister has drop by ~15% since October 7th. Projected seats for his party have dropped from ~27 to ~17.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election

As soon as the war's over he's gone.

bought Ṁ500 of NO

Gantz just needs to insist on drafting the Haredim until at least one Haredi party leaves the coalition, then jump ship himself. Boom. I think that's the most likely scenario. Hard to see how Netanyahu threads the needle with the Haredi draft in this kind of scenario.

predicts YES

@nathanwei Tell me more? What is the Haredi draft?

predicts NO

@DouglasCampbell When Israel was founded, the government enacted compulsory conscription into the military for all Jews (of all genders) for 2+ years, with an exemption carved out for Orthodox Jews who study Torah as a full-time “job.” This compromise enshrined the existing balance of secular & religious interests into law, earning the backing of all Jews to successfully establish the state. Increasingly lately, secular Israelis have pushed for the exemption to end in the interest of equally distributing the burden of military service. Haredi Jews (Orthodox Jews with a more insular lifestyle) defend the exemption because they believe that G-d desires Torah study so much that He will protect Israel in its merit.

predicts YES

@oh Ah, yes, I knew this, but didn't know orthodox Jews were called Haredi. What are the chances Bibi drafts the Haredi right now? So far, from the outside at least, although information is scarce, it doesn't look like the IDF has had too difficult a go of it in northern Gaza.

predicts YES

@DouglasCampbell I guess, a related question, would a man who managed to cling to power for the better part of 20 years do something that would effectively force his own ouster?

@DouglasCampbell He won't really have much of a choice. In Israel, the executive is weaker than in America. If anything, his own party will bolt on him. He won't be able to keep the coalition together. Unlike in America, Israel has a huge tradition of people from the ruling party bolting, breaking, betraying, and so on.

predicts NO

@nathanwei Why would a Haredi party leave the coalition in that situation? Presumably they could just stay and Gantz wouldn't have the votes necessary to pass said legislation. Also Bibi wouldn't agree to Gantzs demand so the vote wouldn't be brought in the first place. And of course if Gantz chooses to leave the coalition still has a majority unless others also leave.

I agree Bibi won't maintain power but I don't think it'll have anything to do with Haredi draft legislation.

predicts NO

@CelebratedWhale Right, in that case though it would hasten defections from Likud since especially after 10/7 Likud voters won't be too happy about the Haredi draft. I was less trying to say "here's exactly XYZ what will happen" and more trying to say that Bibi has to balance 10 impossible things to stay in power.

predicts YES

@nathanwei curious on your views now. So far, it seems he's balanced those things to stay in power.

predicts NO

@DouglasCampbell That was before October 7. He also has given up on the judicial reform and the court struck down the one aspect of it that did go through. I am going to buy more no.

@nathanwei How do you feel now about those No shares you bought six months ago?

@DouglasCampbell I sold some Netanyahu shares at 60% in a different market and bought more no here at 80%. I didn't expect them to wait so long for the Rafah operation. But I think it's not a done deal at all and he might be gone by EOY. I think the market is fairly priced around now at 70%. Here I've spent 33 Mana but my expectation is 38 Mana for +5 in total. So I think I'm doing OK.

bought Ṁ40 of YES

He's a dead man walking after the war is over. But who says the war is going to be over in 6 weeks?

@WieDan related markets

sold Ṁ61 of YES

Once again destroyed myself by my inability to read dates.

predicts YES

I think I've lost like 20% of my net worth to not reading 'by'/'until'/'for the duration of'/'until the end of', correctly before betting.

@WieDan That's brutal. I wonder if a "countdown timer" can be embedded and if that helps. For example, for this market,

predicts YES

@firstuserhere Would def help if only for the visual clue. I'm both dyslexic and I'm not treating manifold seriously enough. For other affair I generally know I need to accommodate my handicap and read everything 3x before doing anything. for manifold I'm often hasty and my handicap kicks in.

predicts NO

@firstuserhere better market (imho)

@WieDan Reading everything 3X can be a valuable thing as well! This reminds me a bit of Gary Alford, an IRS agent who read everything 3 times, never less, never more. This gave him a strong power of recall and ability to find errors way better than others in whatever he was reading, not to mention a good attention to detail in general.

From this verge article

one of his chief confidantes is an undercover DEA agent who begins stealing from him; and the man who discovers his true identity is a nerdy IRS agent who reads every sentence three times.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@WieDan Just curious. I see Netanyahu is quite unpopular. How do we go from "Netanyahu is unpopular" to "Netanyahu is no longer President" exactly? He is not obliged to hold an election in 2024. Will the right wing of Likud bail on him? Perhaps just after prosecuting a successful war? Wouldn't LIkud get killed if they held another election? What is the impeachment process like, and what are the requirements?

predicts NO

@DouglasCampbell Israeli politics are weird. “Early elections can be called by a vote of the majority of Knesset members, or by an edict of the President, and normally occur on occasions of political stalemate and of the inability of the government to get the parliament's support for its policies. Failure to get the annual budget bill approved by the Knesset by March 31 (3 months after the start of the fiscal year) also leads automatically to early elections” (Wikipedia).

predicts NO

@DouglasCampbell Likud has 32/120 seats, and calling for new elections only requires 61 votes.

predicts YES

@oh Thanks. And, Lidud's right-wing partners gave him 64 seats or so. Question, would any of those right-wing partners be likely to bail on him? (Presumably, they've likely commented on this already?)

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@DouglasCampbell Another follow-up. If Likud's right-wing allies bailed and called for a new election, and Likud gets thrashed as expected, then wouldn't Likud's right-wing allies be likely to also lose seats and then be out of power? The right hates Netanyahu that much that they would self-sabotage just to harm Netanyahu? I know nothing of Israeli politics, just curious what people who know more think.

predicts NO

@DouglasCampbell Gantz will bail on him, and the Haredim will bail on him over Haredi-related issues.

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