Background During Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk announced plans to launch an unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) service in Austin, Texas. The service will operate as a paid ride-hailing option, with vehicles operating autonomously without human drivers.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Tesla launches a paid ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas in June 2025 where vehicles operate without human supervision. The market will resolve NO if:

• The launch is delayed beyond June 2025

• The service requires human supervision/safety drivers

• The service is canceled or not launched at all

• The service launches but is restricted to a closed testing environment or limited beta program

Considerations

• Tesla has made previous predictions about FSD capabilities that were delayed or modified

• Regulatory approval from local and state authorities may impact the launch timeline

• The definition of "full self-driving" and what constitutes "unsupervised" operation may affect resolution

• Technical challenges or safety concerns could cause delays or modifications to the planned service

• Update 2025-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Human Supervision:

  • Presence of Supervisors: If any human supervisors or safety drivers are observed during the service operation (including testing), they will be assumed to be required.

• Update 2025-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Commercial, paid service

  • Unsupervised/no safety driver (remote-control capability does not count as supervision)

  • Autonomous/self-driving under normal conditions