Market is based on this tweet:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1912243208421023763?t=xh3ziFk65IwEzjM8fuw12w&s=19

Can a normal, first time, unaffiliated Tesla customer purchase a Model Y and have it drive itself autonomously (with no human occupants) to their home address more than 10 miles away from a Tesla facility.

This needn't cover the entire US, but at least 1% of the US population should be eligible, coverage of multiple cities/urban areas in multiple states, and at least 100 such deliveries have credibly taken place.

(I'm open to minor alterations to these criteria until May in the spirit of this service being available to a significant fraction of customers, outside of special promotional activities)

This market resolves to 'Yes' if Tesla officially offers a service where a vehicle autonomously drives itself to a customer's home by December 31st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.

Clarify before betting, I won't trade on this market.

• Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified how the "100...deliveries have credibly taken place" criterion will be judged:

  • A reasonable estimate that the total is over 100 will be sufficient, without needing 100 individually documented examples.

  • As an example, seeing 20 social media posts from random people across multiple cities would likely be enough evidence to infer that over 100 total deliveries have occurred.

• Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the meaning of 'autonomous' for this market:

  • A delivery will be considered autonomous even if it involves remote supervision.

  • The key requirement is that the vehicle has no human occupants.

• Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the requirement for service in both California and Texas is conjunctive. For the market to resolve to Yes, the service must be available in cities in California and in Texas.

• Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has revised the geographical requirement for the service, stating the original wording was not in the 'spirit' of the market.

  • The previous, strict requirement for service in both California and Texas has been relaxed.

  • The new requirement is for the service to be available in multiple states.

  • This means a scenario where the service is available in two or more states (e.g., Texas and Florida), but not California, could now lead to a Yes resolution.

• Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has revised the geographical requirement for the service. The previous, more specific requirement for service in certain states (e.g., California and Texas) has been relaxed.

The new requirement is for the service to be available in multiple states.

• Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what qualifies as a "Tesla facility":

  • A Tesla showroom is considered a valid starting point for a delivery.

  • The 10+ mile delivery distance criterion will be measured from the showroom in such a case.

• Update 2025-07-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the "multiple states" requirement in response to a user question:

  • The minimum number of states required for a Yes resolution is two.

  • A scenario where the service is available in only a single state (e.g., only Texas) will not be sufficient.