Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?
548
1kṀ260k
2026
79%
chance
14

Will it be possible for a non Tesla employee to ride in a fully autonomous Tesla vehicle anywhere in the world by the end of 2025?

Has to be a service that non Tesla employees can use. Has to be a point to point ride of at least 1 mile. Has to be on public roads in a city.

Boring company tunnels don’t count.

  • Update 2025-02-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - No driver: The vehicle must be fully autonomous with no driver present.

    • Open to non Tesla employees: The service must be available to the general public, not just Tesla employees.

    • Point-to-point ride: The ride must travel from one distinct location to another over a distance of at least 1 mile (routes that simply loop or circle do not qualify).

    • Operates on public roads: The ride must occur on public roads (excluding places like Boring Company tunnels).

  • Update 2025-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on 'anywhere':

    • The term anywhere in the world means that the autonomous ride must occur in at least one location in the world.

    • It does not require that the service be available in every location globally.

  • Update 2025-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Service Duration

    • Ongoing Service Requirement: The Robo-Taxi service must be an ongoing operation rather than a one-off demo or short-term stunt.

    • Temporary Trials: If the service is only a temporary demonstration lasting a few days or weeks, it should resolve as a no outcome.

    • Expansion Intention: If the service begins with a limited number of routes but shows clear plans for sustained and expanding operations, it qualifies for a yes resolution.

  • Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the context of fully autonomous operation:

    • The system should generally align with Level 4 autonomy (e.g., similar to services like Waymo), meaning no human is in the driver's seat.

    • Tele-operation of the vehicle (a remote human driving the car) at normal driving speeds is not permitted.

    • Remote assistance (where a remote human helps the vehicle make a decision or navigate a non-standard situation after the vehicle requests help) is acceptable.

    • This assistance can be initiated even if the vehicle is moving at a very low speed (e.g., a few miles per hour) and indicates uncertainty; it does not strictly require the vehicle to have come to a complete stop on its own first.

  • Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding a safety monitor present in the passenger seat:

    • The creator is conflicted on this scenario and is considering a 50% PARTIAL resolution or a NO resolution if a safety monitor is present.

    • This is open to further discussion as the situation evolves.

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