If Tesla does at least 10,000 cab rides by year end and the service is still operational with any Tesla model (not restricted to Cyber cab), this market will resolve YES
If Tesla rolls out ride-hailing and then pulls the plug by year end, this market will resolve NO
If Tesla does less than 10,000 rides, this market will resolve NO
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1889006561541882170
Elon says they'll be doing driverless ride-hailing in Austin by June.
Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Driverless rides must be completely autonomous with no human available as a backup.
Rides that require a human to be present or to take control will not count as driverless.
Update 2025-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Bona Fide Rides Requirement:
Legitimate Trip: Rides must be genuine transportation requests where a rider intends to travel from point A to point B, not just for testing the service on a trivial distance.
Non-Tester Rides: Rides should not be conducted by Tesla-employed testers or as a means to simply check the system's functionality.
Update 2025-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ride Distance Requirement:
Driverless rides must cover a distance that exceeds trivial or test runs. We are effectively setting a maximum range of 400m to distinguish bona fide transportation requests from one-off or proof-of-concept maneuvers.
Data Limitations:
Note that while we intend to use the 400m threshold, the ride data reported by Tesla may not include an accurate measure of ride distance. In practice, the statistics will likely count rides in a way that naturally excludes these shenanigans.
Systematic Use & 10k Threshold:
Only systematic usage of the smart summon feature will contribute toward reaching the 10,000 rides requirement. One-off tricks or isolated cases will not affect the market resolution.
1,000Okay, what if I park my Tesla at the end of my street, then do this:
1) Let one of my neighbors "hail" me.
2) I open the doors for him, he gets in the back seat.
3) I use the "Actually Smart Summon" feature to bring the car to me, at the other end of the street.
4) When the car stops next to me, my neighbor thanks me, and pays me $1 for the ride.
There was hailing involved. There was no human driving involved. I only pressed a button to unlock doors, then held down a button to activate Actually Smart Summon.
Would that count? Arguably, that was "driverless ride hailing." Heck, it was even, "paid driverless ride hailing."
@StCredZero perhaps it would be useful to clarify that the rides have to be “bona fide”. As in the rider wanted to legitimately get from point A to point B, not just test the service at a trivial distance. And not because the rider is a Tesla employed tester.
@aashiq A little more needs to be specified here. If the neighbor is elderly, and the walk from their door to the mailboxes is "significant" to them, then this is not just to test the service, and it's arguably not a "trivial" distance. It's a point A to point B journey of genuine utility.
I think you're better off just setting a short arbitrary distance. I think 400m is the max range of Actually Smart Summon, so that would close off that loophole.
@StCredZero sure I’m happy to set a range of 400m. But I don’t know if we will actually get stats that have an accurate range on them. In practice we will get some number like “rides” from Tesla, which will probably exclude shenanigans like what you are saying by construction
Also note that I am requiring at least 10k rides so one-off tricks like this shouldn’t matter much, only a systematic usage of smart sunmon
@StCredZero yup, agreed. Of course, there’s some chance they realize an even smarter summon with a bigger distance sometime this year right?
@StCredZero ah i see the confusion. my point about the accuracy of the range was not about smart summon. i am saying that Tesla may not tell us how long the actual rides were. So we won't be able to tell how many are < 400m
@aashiq Doesn't smart summons require your finger be on a dead man's switch? That still seems like you're the driver even if you're controlling the car from the outside like an RC car. A good way to prove that you're the driver is that you'd be the one responsible if the car ran into someone, not Tesla.
@WrongoPhD I think it really depends how the running over happened. I think there exist smart summon failure modes where Tesla would lose a lawsuit.
@WrongoPhD
> Doesn't smart summons require your finger be on a dead man's switch? That still seems like you're the driver
Is holding a dead-man's switch really "driving?" It's more "supervising." A student driver with an instructor in the passenger seat would still be the one "driving."
@StCredZero @aashiq According to Tesla, you are required to have control over the car at all times. This doesn't sound like Tesla thinks they have any liability or that they are the ones in control of the car. It's also noteworthy they are explicitly still calling you the driver
