If Tesla does at least 10,000 cab rides by year end and the service is still operational with any Tesla model (not restricted to Cyber cab), this market will resolve YES

If Tesla rolls out ride-hailing and then pulls the plug by year end, this market will resolve NO

If Tesla does less than 10,000 rides, this market will resolve NO

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1889006561541882170
Elon says they'll be doing driverless ride-hailing in Austin by June.

• Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Driverless rides must be completely autonomous with no human available as a backup.

  • Rides that require a human to be present or to take control will not count as driverless.

• Update 2025-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Bona Fide Rides Requirement:

  • Legitimate Trip: Rides must be genuine transportation requests where a rider intends to travel from point A to point B, not just for testing the service on a trivial distance.

  • Non-Tester Rides: Rides should not be conducted by Tesla-employed testers or as a means to simply check the system's functionality.

• Update 2025-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ride Distance Requirement:

  • Driverless rides must cover a distance that exceeds trivial or test runs. We are effectively setting a maximum range of 400m to distinguish bona fide transportation requests from one-off or proof-of-concept maneuvers.

Data Limitations:

• Note that while we intend to use the 400m threshold, the ride data reported by Tesla may not include an accurate measure of ride distance. In practice, the statistics will likely count rides in a way that naturally excludes these shenanigans.

Systematic Use & 10k Threshold:

• Only systematic usage of the smart summon feature will contribute toward reaching the 10,000 rides requirement. One-off tricks or isolated cases will not affect the market resolution.

• Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Smart Summon Exclusion:

  • Smart Summon rides will not count toward fulfilling the driverless ride-hailing criteria.

• Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The "still operational" requirement is met if the service is active on the last day of the year. Gaps in service, even lasting for months, will not lead to a NO resolution.

  • The 10,000 ride threshold is cumulative across all periods of operation. The count will not be reset by gaps in service or separated by different "test runs".

• Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to user questions regarding the 'no human backup' rule, the creator has clarified the following:

  • A Waymo-style system is considered a valid benchmark for 'driverless' for this market.

  • The rule is intended to exclude systems that require a backup driver in the car or teleoperation.