Background During Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk announced plans to launch what is called unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) service in Austin, Texas. The service will operate as a paid ride-hailing option, with vehicles operating autonomously without human drivers inside the car.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Tesla launches a paid ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas in June 2025 where vehicles operate without human supervision inside the car. The market will resolve NO if:
The launch is delayed beyond June 2025
The service requires human supervision/safety drivers in the car
The service is canceled or not launched at all
The definition of no human driver is clear. The Sawyer merritt and Tesla statements are what they are promising in June. If they launch a paid service without the supervised driver then that counts.
Yes the service must be:
A commercial, paid service
Unsupervised/ no safety driver
It is still YES even if they have the ability to take remote control.
Waymo can take remote control but they are considered by the media as a robotaxi service.
Apollo Go in China, Cruise are considered robotaxi services.
The standard is no human driver in the car and a paid service.
Others can debate their definitions but other questions can be created.
Update 2025-04-30 (PST): - Public access requirement: the service must be bookable by ordinary (non-Tesla employee) customers. If only Tesla employees can book it, the market resolves NO. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Remote monitoring does not count as supervision. The determination of 'unsupervised' focuses on the absence of a human driver in the car.
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Access for non-Tesla employees can be limited by invitation.
Paid rides must still be provided to these invited non-employees for the service to qualify.
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Remote driving or human remote supervision is not a disqualifying factor for the service to be considered unsupervised.
The standard for unsupervised is the absence of a human driver inside the vehicle.
This corrects a previous AI-generated summary from 2025-05-15 which incorrectly stated that human remote supervision would be a disqualifying factor.
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This market is extremely misleading. The title says "unsupervised" but the resolution criteria say that remote human operators (effectively supervisors) actually don't count. Besides this, the resolution criteria are full of confusing statements. I recommend to change the title and polish up the resolution criteria.
@SimoneRomeo I have clarified. The confusion is with those who do not follow robotaxi for waymo and cruise and that everyone does some level of remote driving or remote assistance. That is the current situation. Having no humans do anything from remote is not provable and would disqualify all of the services that exist today and that are likely to exist this year. It also opens up forecasting resolution problems.
Thanks
The AI is misinterpreting what I said. Remote driving is NOT disqualifying. No human driver in the car is the standard for not supervised. I fixed it
It will still be a yes if the non employees are limited by invitation. The non employees paid rides still must be given. The invitation or other initial limitations is similar to the restriction of a section of Austin. The launch of 10-20 vehicles can only give out a hundred or so rides per day.
there are other questions for those who want to ask. The robotaxicounts if there is human remote supervision. Human remote supervision would disqualifies all so called robotaxi services. Waymo, Cruise, apollo Go, Autox etc... so tesla would also still be a robotaxi service with remote humans helping. This is a consistent standard for all robotaxi service. What it does is it harms scaling but it does not change that no human driver is the difference between taxi and robotaxi.
@TiredCliche no remote monitoring does not count as supervision. Remote monitoring will prevent or massively slow scaling of the service. Just like in the old days telephone operators limited what phone service scaling could reach BUT it was still a phone service. A phone service with operators. This will be a taxi service without human drivers IN the car.