NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!

Waymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.

To define fully autonomous, I'll use the simplest definition which is that no human operated any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals. (UPDATE: And no human in the driver's seat is actively monitoring the driving being ready to intervene.) A ride must be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count). Rides on a track like the Las Vegas Loop do not count.

I will delay resolution until both companies report results or until the result is extremely clear, or until it's January 2027, where I'll make an informed guess.