It is what it sounds like. I don't need to be picky about adjudication criteria. We'll know it if we see it. (God forbid.)

This is a fix for the x-risk shortcoming in these markets. If the claim only resolves as YES if all the humans are dead, then there may not be anyone around to settle the claim. These should trade at 0% or 100% before time discounting.

https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8

https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-humanity-go-extinct-before-203

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

18% chance. If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO. If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES. If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve. See also: @/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d…