Strikes on Iranian regime by 2026-01-16?

324

Ṁ1kṀ96k

resolved Jan 17

Resolved

ALL

By EOD local time.

Any foreign power, military strikes. Air strikes, boots on ground, artillery.

Must be clearly reported as foreign strikes, not internal military / revolution / protestors, by a consensus of credible reporting.

Update 2026-01-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If strikes occur but reporting is delayed, resolution will wait approximately one day for delayed reporting. The creator may wait longer if the situation is unclear or if traders request additional time.

Update 2026-01-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on whether strikes occur by EOD (end of day) local time on 2026-01-16, not by the end of 2026-01-15.

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This Donald guy is so full of shit.

@EvanDaniel it's 4:30 AM on Jan 17 in Iran, should resolve NO

Why don't people just use UTC....

@EvanDaniel Wait, which "by 2026-01-16" is this? I assumed the same as a "by 2026" market, which will resolve according to the state of the world on 2025-12-31 23:59. But close date doesn't fit with waiting ~1 day, bit with waiting 2 days. Or with "by end of 2026-01-16", bit that's not how "by" commonly is interpreted on Manifold.

@Primer description says "By EOD local time." I'd assume this means, by EOD on 1/16.

@bens Makes sense. I had thought this meant "by EOD local time on the 15th", but everything fits together with your reading, so I'll assume that's correct. Thanks!

@bens yes, that's the intended interpretation.

@Primer it's the 1st day of 16th month

Next one https://manifold.markets/ajc/will-us-weapons-strike-targets-insi?r=QWx2YQ

First blasts reported outside of Tehran on Bellingcat?

@Predictor I am suspicious that you are leaving a comment and not buying a large amount of YES

@Predictor because of your comment I bought cheap no

bought Ṁ50 YES

Iran issued a NOTAM (closing its airspace basically) for ~2 hours tonight

@someoneR5c8l shhhhh

Anyone wanna fill my YES limit order?

@someoneR5c8l NOTAM just means "notice to airmen" . They can be used to communicate a number of things.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Trump says the killings have stopped and Iran had no plans for executions. Sounds like chickening out to me.

bought Ṁ30 YES

@BrunoJ before attacking last time he said that he hasn't decided yet and in about 2 weeks he'll know. it happened less than 48 hours after that

@BrunoJ also, some airlines cancel flights to the Middle East and a few embassies closed down operations

@someoneR5c8l "I have not decided" is not the same as "I will not."

@Lilemont back then it was a lie to make them less on guard. it was later published that he said that right after deciding to attack. i don't know about this round

What if it happens but we don't hear about it for a while?

@Eliza I assume we wait a day or so for delayed reporting, I don't see a need to wait much longer than that. If things look messy or people ask we can wait longer.