Strikes on Iranian regime by 2026-01-16?

252

1kṀ54k

Jan 17

29%

chance

ALL

By EOD local time.

Any foreign power, military strikes. Air strikes, boots on ground, artillery.

Must be clearly reported as foreign strikes, not internal military / revolution / protestors, by a consensus of credible reporting.

Update 2026-01-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If strikes occur but reporting is delayed, resolution will wait approximately one day for delayed reporting. The creator may wait longer if the situation is unclear or if traders request additional time.

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First blasts reported outside of Tehran on Bellingcat?

@Predictor I am suspicious that you are leaving a comment and not buying a large amount of YES

bought Ṁ50 YES

Iran issued a NOTAM (closing its airspace basically) for ~2 hours tonight

@someoneR5c8l shhhhh

Anyone wanna fill my YES limit order?

bought Ṁ50 NO

Trump says the killings have stopped and Iran had no plans for executions. Sounds like chickening out to me.

bought Ṁ30 YES

@BrunoJ before attacking last time he said that he hasn't decided yet and in about 2 weeks he'll know. it happened less than 48 hours after that

@BrunoJ also, some airlines cancel flights to the Middle East and a few embassies closed down operations

@someoneR5c8l "I have not decided" is not the same as "I will not."

What if it happens but we don't hear about it for a while?

@Eliza I assume we wait a day or so for delayed reporting, I don't see a need to wait much longer than that. If things look messy or people ask we can wait longer.