Long shot(ish) bets: How many of these 13 markets will resolve as expected?
9
134
1.3K
2026
86%
13
11%
12
1.7%
11
0.7%
10
0.3%
8-9
0.3%
5-7
0.2%
0-4

These markets are, in my judgment, a mix of long-shot and merely-unlikely markets that will resolve in a medium time frame. This market attempts to assess things like what the interest rate is, whether these have been adequately bet towards certainty, and whether there are any correlation effects between these. Perhaps it is an interesting opportunity for an arb bot.

How many of these will resolve as expected?

/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre (expected NO)

/dreev/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-the-end (NO)

/manaboi69/covid-restrictions-to-return (NO)

/TimP/will-there-be-a-nuclear-powerplant-e2426b9b1c83 (NO)

/IsaacKing/will-google-still-be-the-most-popul (YES)

/KunalBagaria/will-vivek-ramaswamy-become-the-pre (NO)

/LarsDoucet/will-president-biden-mint-the-coin(NO)

/BRTD/will-joe-biden-openly-convert-to-pr (NO)

/Tripping/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-be-the-dem (NO)

/Tripping/will-rational-animations-video-the-477f5fbe68f7 (YES)

/osmarks/does-graphene-energy-harvesting-wor (NO)

/SG/are-the-mexican-alien-bodies-real-s (NO)

/Predictor/will-a-galactic-federation-reveal-i (NO)

This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to the underlying markets. A result of N/A is not "expected" for any of these markets.

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A spreadsheet to calculate the values this market "should" have, if the underlying prices were correct and the underlying markets had exactly zero correlation:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_AnZwqGO8MsWs4ycTZEim41uuaiiWnVmHrMmPjdrzEY/edit?usp=sharing

It should be pulling the data from the Manifold API in real time.

By my calculation, if the current prices on the linked markets were accurate and they had exactly zero correlation between any markets, probabilities should be:
13: 0.669

12: 0.275

11: 0.050

10: 0.005

<= 9: 0.0004

This uses the displayed market price as the probability, rounded per Manifold normal rules; I did not check API for exact prices.

Presumably current market pricing of 13 at 85% indicates that the underlying markets are, in general, underconfident or significantly correlated.

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