Will president Biden “mint the coin” at any point during his administration?
12%
chance

Background:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion-dollar_coin

Given the troubles McCarthy went through to become speaker, many believe there will be upcoming fights over the budget, debt ceiling, and government shutdowns. President Biden can get around this by "minting the coin" (see above link - TL;DR, he has the authority to tell the mint to strike a platinum coin of arbitrary value to overcome limits).

Will President Biden ever mint the coin (or coins) during his administration? This resolves YES if/when two conditions are both fulfilled:

  1. Such a platinum coin(s) is/are minted

  2. Biden is president at the time (or was at the time the order to mint the coin was given)

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AdriaGarrigaAlonso avatar
Adrià Garriga-Alonso
bought Ṁ800 of NO
Alana avatar

Does the coin have to be made of platinum?

jack avatar
Jack
is predicting NO at 17%

@Alana The legal loophole that allows minting a coin of any denomination specifically says it has to be platinum, so non-platinum coins wouldn't really work here.

jack avatar
Jack
is predicting YES at 16%

I created a collection of markets on how the debt ceiling crisis will go this year: https://manifold.markets/jack/how-will-the-2023-us-debt-ceiling-c (See the linked markets there.)

jack avatar
Jack
is predicting YES at 16%
ManifoldDream avatar

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Nathan is in SF (say hi 👋)

Will Biden mint the coin? (9%) https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-president-biden-mint-the-coin?referrer=NathanpmYoung https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1613944913455976468

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet
is predicting YES at 10%
jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ15 of YES

Does the platinum coin have to specifically have a denomination of at least $1T?

LarsDoucet avatar

@jack No, it doesn't have specifically be a trillion dollars, or any other specific amount, but it DOES have to be deployed with the obvious intention of being a "cut the gordian knot" solution to budgetary issues.

jack avatar

Related:

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet
bought Ṁ5 of YES

@jack Since mine is for anytime in the Biden administration, not just in 2023, that means it should trade at a higher % chance than your market? Because the coin could be minted in 2023, 2024, or 2025, and still be under the Biden administration. This is discounted by the chance that Biden dies in office or resigns early (for e.g. health reasons). My market expires before Biden could serve a second term, however.

jack avatar
Jack
is predicting YES at 13%

@LarsDoucet Yes, which is why I bought one down and the other up :)

In my view, your market should count a second Biden administration based on how it's worded. The close date should be extended if he serves a second term. But how to interpret close dates is a subject of some disagreement.

jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ100 of NO

Can you update your description to say it has to be during Biden's first term?

ManifoldDream avatar

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Lars "Land is a Big Deal" Doucet

Will President Biden ever “mint the coin” at any point during his administration? https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-president-biden-mint-the-coin?referrer=LarsDoucet