Background:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion-dollar_coin
Given the troubles McCarthy went through to become speaker, many believe there will be upcoming fights over the budget, debt ceiling, and government shutdowns. President Biden can get around this by "minting the coin" (see above link - TL;DR, he has the authority to tell the mint to strike a platinum coin of arbitrary value to overcome limits).
Will President Biden ever mint the coin (or coins) during his administration? This resolves YES if/when two conditions are both fulfilled:
Such a platinum coin(s) is/are minted
Biden is president at the time (or was at the time the order to mint the coin was given)
It was preposterous to begin with, but also consider this:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/janet-yellen-dismisses-minting-1-trillion-coin-to-avoid-default-11674417541
I created a collection of markets on how the debt ceiling crisis will go this year: https://manifold.markets/jack/how-will-the-2023-us-debt-ceiling-c (See the linked markets there.)
Does the platinum coin have to specifically have a denomination of at least $1T?
@jack No, it doesn't have specifically be a trillion dollars, or any other specific amount, but it DOES have to be deployed with the obvious intention of being a "cut the gordian knot" solution to budgetary issues.
@jack Since mine is for anytime in the Biden administration, not just in 2023, that means it should trade at a higher % chance than your market? Because the coin could be minted in 2023, 2024, or 2025, and still be under the Biden administration. This is discounted by the chance that Biden dies in office or resigns early (for e.g. health reasons). My market expires before Biden could serve a second term, however.
@LarsDoucet Yes, which is why I bought one down and the other up :)
In my view, your market should count a second Biden administration based on how it's worded. The close date should be extended if he serves a second term. But how to interpret close dates is a subject of some disagreement.
Can you update your description to say it has to be during Biden's first term?
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Lars "Land is a Big Deal" Doucet
Will President Biden ever “mint the coin” at any point during his administration? https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-president-biden-mint-the-coin?referrer=LarsDoucet
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Nathan is in SF (say hi 👋)