Background:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion-dollar_coin
Given the troubles McCarthy went through to become speaker, many believe there will be upcoming fights over the budget, debt ceiling, and government shutdowns. President Biden can get around this by "minting the coin" (see above link - TL;DR, he has the authority to tell the mint to strike a platinum coin of arbitrary value to overcome limits).
Will President Biden ever mint the coin (or coins) during his administration? This resolves YES if/when two conditions are both fulfilled:
Such a platinum coin(s) is/are minted
Biden is president at the time (or was at the time the order to mint the coin was given)
1,000
3.00This idea is an unusual and contentious one. It includes a legal workaround that has yet to be applied. The idea is predicated on a vague reading of the law. It has been questioned if this complies with the legislation's letter and spirit. Also, throughout American history, the country's financial affairs have been managed according to institutional norms and procedures. Congress usually avoids government shutdowns due to their negative economic impact, disruptions in essential services, potential harm to national security, public opinion consequences, and political fallout. Lawmakers often prioritize finding compromises, passing temporary funding measures, or raising the debt ceiling to ensure government functions and prevent these adverse effects.
@FreshFrier Yep
EDIT: belay that yep. I previously stated that this market expires before his second term, so I have to stay consistent, sorry. If biden’s re-elected I will let this market resolve on its current expiry and open a new one for the second term. Sorry for the confusion
It would look almost certain that Joe Biden would have a mint coin as is US Presidents’ culture. The last last President to mint the coin was G W Bush the Senior and none after him has. It therefore seems as if the tradition ended with George Bush and will not be done anymore. Statistically speaking the majority of the US Presidents do have mint coins however, Joe is almost done with his first term and based on the fact that current polls reveal that Donald Trump is a more preferred candidate and Joe is most likely to lose the next election. If however he wins the elections he might mint the coin. Based on my analysis I think NOT.
@MunasheMupaISAFAfrica This is not what the market is about. The market is about whether Biden will direct the US Mint to mint a single coin of astronomical value -- hundreds of billions of dollars -- as a constitutional hack around the debt ceiling.
@MichaelBlume perhaps the phrasing of the question was not very clear however, I do see the need for minting given the rise in inflation and the need for more reserves but I still stand with my position that Biden may not have the chance to “mint the coin”.
Yellen would resign first
the most important lesson to learn in the past 20 years is that you do not go on fox news, you do not play ball with fascists, you do not try to Be The Bigger Man, you do not go High while they go Low. the only thing fascists respect is power, and the fact is that biden has the power to end the crisis with an executive order.
(i post this to pump)
It was preposterous to begin with, but also consider this:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/janet-yellen-dismisses-minting-1-trillion-coin-to-avoid-default-11674417541
@Alana The legal loophole that allows minting a coin of any denomination specifically says it has to be platinum, so non-platinum coins wouldn't really work here.
I created a collection of markets on how the debt ceiling crisis will go this year: https://manifold.markets/jack/how-will-the-2023-us-debt-ceiling-c (See the linked markets there.)
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Nathan is in SF (say hi 👋)
Will Biden mint the coin? (9%) https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-president-biden-mint-the-coin?referrer=NathanpmYoung https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1613944913455976468
@jack No, it doesn't have specifically be a trillion dollars, or any other specific amount, but it DOES have to be deployed with the obvious intention of being a "cut the gordian knot" solution to budgetary issues.
@jack Since mine is for anytime in the Biden administration, not just in 2023, that means it should trade at a higher % chance than your market? Because the coin could be minted in 2023, 2024, or 2025, and still be under the Biden administration. This is discounted by the chance that Biden dies in office or resigns early (for e.g. health reasons). My market expires before Biden could serve a second term, however.
@LarsDoucet Yes, which is why I bought one down and the other up :)
In my view, your market should count a second Biden administration based on how it's worded. The close date should be extended if he serves a second term. But how to interpret close dates is a subject of some disagreement.