Will Sam Bankman-Fried take the stand in his current trial?
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resolved Oct 27
Resolved
YES

Ignoring any further trials or mistrails. If the current trial has him testify, YES, otherwise NO.

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predicted YES

Okay the case that speaking without the jury is still testimony seems strong, but in the interest of care, an easier resolution may come out tomorrow or soon. Keeping open until we have resolution one way or the other

predicted YES

I have asked for this to be reopened.

predicted YES

@Ernie i can do that, what do you want that for?

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch Apparently he was not testifying to the jury but rather speaking to the judge. Seems safer to keep it open.

bought Ṁ500 of YES

@higherLEVELING Aren’t mainstream news outlets supposed to have legal journalists on deck who can talk accurately about what they’re covering? It’s unbelievable that they can’t get their act together. if Reuters is right, the Times is reporting like amateurs; if the Times is correct, Reuters is being sloppy. It does seem like he testified. So why is the Times saying the testimony was postponed?

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING For the record, I have no position on the legal facts—was it or not testimony. I find the Times reporting on this befuddling.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@NicoDelon He testifies in front of the judge and w lawyers so judge can determine if it can be used as evidence or not. If its permissible to use as evidence, he will have to testify again infront of the jury i believe, so i guess the times is correct also. Because he is testifying but it's to determine if it can be used as evidence.

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING Yes, I read that. So he gave a testimony but his testimony was postponed. You gotta give it to the paper of record to write the most equivocal headlines.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon How is it permissible to write this if SBF actually testified? That’s literally fake news. Yes, we understand the part about the jury. But this is phrased incredibly deceptively.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon it's true. A lawyer doesn't seem to have verified that language.

predicted YES

Hmm does testify imply the jury must be present? Or is this clearly technically a hearing and not testimony?

Is it testimony if the jury does hear it but later is told to disregard?

@Ernie The way the Times describes it, the testimony hasn’t happened yet. But like, I probably would have been fooled too.

Interesting twist: this was—according to The NY Times—just a hearing, not a testimony, which has been postponed to Friday.

EDIT: news reports are conflicting. Was it testimony or not? I dunno.

predicted YES
sold Ṁ491 of YES

@Ernie can resolve, right?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Bloomberg has a very good take on this:

Will Bankman-Fried take the stand and testify in his own defense? Buddy he has posted on Substack in his own defense; of course he will testify. Bankman-Fried will talk to absolutely anyone, with no filter at all, about what happened at the end of FTX. You think he won’t talk to a jury about it?

Isn’t it risky for him to testify? Won’t he be subjected to withering cross-examination from well-prepared prosecutors who will trap him in lies? Well! I mean, sure, probably. But if he does not testify, all the jury will have is (1) the testimony of FTX customers who are like “all our money is gone,” (2) the testimony of all of his closest friends and colleagues testifying “yeah we stole all the money because Sam told us to” and (3) screenshots of FTX computer code that is like “IF you_feel_like_it THEN steal(all.the.money).” His testimony just cannot make things worse! The jury is going to get the prosecutors’ story and it is really, really, really, really bad for Bankman-Fried. He needs to tell his side of the story to have any shot at all. If his testimony has a 10% chance of being compelling and a 90% chance of being disastrous, that is all upside. [4] If he does not testify, that is 100% disastrous.

sold Ṁ55 of NO

@MikeH sounds reasonable. Even the judge may already be 10/10 angry at him so it wouldn't be a sentencing risk

Actually if sbf believes in AGI then for him ten years sentence may be the same as fifty

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Lots of traders, but low volume. Get in while the getting's good

Elizabeth Holmes couldn’t change the outcome and she has degrees of magnitude more charisma.

@BTE SBF gonna need to deepen that voice to get on her level.

predicted NO