How much time will SBF serve in jail/prison/house-arrest?
326
2.9k
7.3k
2090
0.3%
<2 years
3%
2-5 years
3%
5-10 years
35%
10-20 years
53%
20-30 years
0.3%
30-40 years
0.2%
40-50 years
5%
50+ years

Including pretrial detention. Including the house arrest part of the pretrial detention. For each interval the first number is inclusive and the second number is exclusive. Resolves whenever SBF is either dead or a free man (not just out on bail)

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bought Ṁ2,500 5-10 years NO

the SBF pardon market is 2% so is the 5-10 mostly suicide?

sold Ṁ245 50+ years NO

@JonathanRay he's also appealing I think?

A detail:

Resolves whenever SBF is either dead or a free man

So if SBF is freed after 19 years this resolves 10-20 even if he commits more crimes and is jailed again.

sold Ṁ8 2-5 years YES

25 year sentence.

Expect half off for good behavior.

He can still appeal his sentence?

Not sure what this market is doing.

@MartinRandall I guess he might die. AFAIK he can't get half off for good behaviour for this, only max 15% off

@MartinRandall Thank you!

Quite interesting to see if his coming out effects sentencing of the SBF?

Quite a pivot!

@Mirek sociopath with a list fetish

bought Ṁ25 10-20 years YES

Looks like the prosecution is recommending 40-50. Can't really imagine them going higher https://apnews.com/article/sam-bankman-fried-court-ftx-21b1fd99ac841d7fe90b90c96c3a9a5d

@Marnix reminder that this market is about how many years he actually serves in prison, not the sentence. People sentenced to 40-50 years get out after half that or less

sold Ṁ10 40-50 years YES

@JonathanRay USUALLY get out after half that or less 😛

Plus, yeah, there's no guarantee that he'll even get the full recommended sentence

I wonder who he's linking up with in the big house?

Since this question will wait until SBF dies or is freed from prison before resolving, which could take many decades, I have opened a new question about how many months SBF will be sentenced to in March 2024.

bought Ṁ15 of 20-30 years YES

Actuarial tables give him 45 years, I think 40-50 is probably still underbought even if he's sentenced to 50+ (Or I'm missing something obvious).

bought Ṁ10 of 30-40 years YES

@Sailfish nobody serves the amount they're sentenced to

bought Ṁ100 of 50+ years NO

@Sailfish Do the tables account for the health effects of being in a US prison for 50 years?

The combined statutory maximum for the list of charges he was convicted of would be 65 years

Time served or time sentenced?

@MemeMan I've been assuming time served, based on the resolution criteria: "Resolves whenever SBF is either dead or a free man (not just out on bail)" -- this implies that sentencing alone is insufficient to resolve the market.

@EricNeyman that would take put a damper on this market

bought Ṁ17 of 50+ years YES

@MemeMan Time served. The only reason short times are trading above zero is because he might Epstein himself

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