How much time will SBF serve in jail/prison/house-arrest?
296
1.9K
6.5K
2090
1.9%
<2 years
1.4%
2-5 years
4%
5-10 years
15%
10-20 years
30%
20-30 years
14%
30-40 years
5%
40-50 years
28%
50+ years

Including pretrial detention. Including the house arrest part of the pretrial detention. For each interval the first number is inclusive and the second number is exclusive. Resolves whenever SBF is either dead or a free man (not just out on bail)

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Daniel_MC avatar
Daniel
MatthewBarnett avatar
Matthew Barnett

Since this question will wait until SBF dies or is freed from prison before resolving, which could take many decades, I have opened a new question about how many months SBF will be sentenced to in March 2024.

Sailfish avatar
Sailfishbought Ṁ15 of
20-30 years
YES

Actuarial tables give him 45 years, I think 40-50 is probably still underbought even if he's sentenced to 50+ (Or I'm missing something obvious).

ErickBall avatar
Erick Ballbought Ṁ10 of
30-40 years
YES

@Sailfish nobody serves the amount they're sentenced to

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ100 of
50+ years
NO

@Sailfish Do the tables account for the health effects of being in a US prison for 50 years?

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray

The combined statutory maximum for the list of charges he was convicted of would be 65 years

MemeMan avatar
Meme Man

Time served or time sentenced?

EricNeyman avatar
Eric Neyman

@MemeMan I've been assuming time served, based on the resolution criteria: "Resolves whenever SBF is either dead or a free man (not just out on bail)" -- this implies that sentencing alone is insufficient to resolve the market.

Ernie avatar
Ernie

@EricNeyman that would take put a damper on this market

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raybought Ṁ17 of
50+ years
YES

@MemeMan Time served. The only reason short times are trading above zero is because he might Epstein himself

JackGWhitaker avatar
Jack Gross-Whitaker

lol why is 30-50 like not possible?