Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?
1k
2030
7%
chance

Market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Bankman Fried receives at a criminal penalty at least as severe as a life sentence including with the possibility of parole, OR the maximum possible sentence in any jurisdiction that does not allow life sentences.

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predicts NO

What if he uploads himself?

predicts YES

So, I'm thinking of interpreting the "at least as severe" clause here to include the possibility that Sam gets >60 years. If people disagree with that interpretation, I am willing to resolve this market ambiguously and create a new one. Otherwise if there are no objections I will modify the available description.

predicts NO

@DeanValentine Myself, I disagree with that. He's thirty years old; given early release, it's at least as likely as not that he'd outlive that sentence.

predicts YES

@EvanTh Ok, how about 70? Early release in the federal prison system is capped to 85% of the sentence, so I think an effective 60 years minimum is fair.

predicts YES

@DeanValentine or maybe resolve it at a Prob above 50/60/70 based on mortality estimates lol

@DeanValentine If you were going to fix it to a number of years, that should have been in the title of the market. I would read "at least as severe as life in prison with the possibility of parole" as meaning "life in prison with or without the possibility of parole, or death sentence, and nothing else". Given advances in medical technology, any fixed number of years could come out less severe than life.

predicts YES

@RiverBellamy I explicitly had in mind the outcome of a hundred year prison sentence when formulating that description. I can resolve it N/A if people object but would prefer not to.

@DeanValentine Where is this explicit? I don't see it in the question or the description.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Why do you think this is possible? There is no parole in Federal prison dude.

bought Ṁ90 of YES

@BTE "At least as severe".

predicts YES

@DeanValentine Also, this market was made a month ago, wasn't clear who was going to charge him then.

predicts NO

@DeanValentine Still no parole. The only possible jurisdiction is Federal because he doesn't live in the US.

predicts YES

@BTE There was a possibility he got charged in the Bahamas as it had already been reported that they were running an investigation against him. The Americans just got him first.

predicts NO

@DeanValentine I actually think he was charged in both US and Bahamas.

predicts YES

@BTE Interesting.

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Before 2030, will Sam Bankman Fried receive an effective life sentence in prison?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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