Market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Bankman Fried receives at a criminal penalty at least as severe as a life sentence including with the possibility of parole, OR the maximum possible sentence in any jurisdiction that does not allow life sentences.
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So, I'm thinking of interpreting the "at least as severe" clause here to include the possibility that Sam gets >60 years. If people disagree with that interpretation, I am willing to resolve this market ambiguously and create a new one. Otherwise if there are no objections I will modify the available description.
@DeanValentine Myself, I disagree with that. He's thirty years old; given early release, it's at least as likely as not that he'd outlive that sentence.
@EvanTh Ok, how about 70? Early release in the federal prison system is capped to 85% of the sentence, so I think an effective 60 years minimum is fair.
@DeanValentine or maybe resolve it at a Prob above 50/60/70 based on mortality estimates lol
@DeanValentine If you were going to fix it to a number of years, that should have been in the title of the market. I would read "at least as severe as life in prison with the possibility of parole" as meaning "life in prison with or without the possibility of parole, or death sentence, and nothing else". Given advances in medical technology, any fixed number of years could come out less severe than life.
@RiverBellamy I explicitly had in mind the outcome of a hundred year prison sentence when formulating that description. I can resolve it N/A if people object but would prefer not to.
@DeanValentine Also, this market was made a month ago, wasn't clear who was going to charge him then.
@DeanValentine Still no parole. The only possible jurisdiction is Federal because he doesn't live in the US.
@BTE There was a possibility he got charged in the Bahamas as it had already been reported that they were running an investigation against him. The Americans just got him first.
