Will a member of United States congress die in 2026?
9
100Ṁ279
2027
89%
chance

If they are elected at any point in the 30 days prior to death, or the day they die, it will resolve YES.

House & Senate

  • Update 2025-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification of Eligibility Criteria:

    • All individuals elected to a congressional office are covered regardless of when the election occurred.

    • All individuals occupying the office at the time of death qualify.

    • This update is intended to include outcomes from special elections as well as standard elections, superseding the previously stated 30‐day constraint.

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Why are there two of these markets?

Base rates are actually quite high. These people are old.

What's the point of the 30 day constraint? Do I understand correctly that this would exclude anyone who was elected earlier?

@AlexanderTheGreater I'll clarify. I. Believe it's to cover people who have been elected in a special election. I agree, it's confusing as written. I mean to cover anyone elected to the office or occupying the office.

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